Equity benchmark indices witnessed a carnage on Friday, with the Sensex ending nearly 450 points lower, while the Nifty breached 10,000-mark, falling over 150 points.
The benchmark indices fell over 1%, extending losses for the fourth straight session, while the rupee hit its weakest point since early April amid concerns that the government’s plan for a stimulus to halt an economic slowdown may have a negative impact on the fiscal deficit.
Global investor sentiment was also subdued after North Korea said it might test a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean and escalated a war of words with US President Donald Trump.
The Sensex closed down 447.60 points at 31922.44, while the Nifty ended lower by 157.50 points at 9964.40. The market breadth was negative as 524 shares advanced against a decline of 2,082 shares, while 144 shares were unchanged.
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Equity benchmarks closed lower on Friday, with the Sensex falling more than 100 points amid consolidation as investors remained cautious ahead of quarterly earnings that will start next week with Infosys & TCS. Profit booking, further correction in technology stocks and weak European cues drove the market lower while buying in banking & financials stocks capped downside.
The 30-share BSE Sensex slipped 119.01 points to 26759.23 after hitting an intraday high of 27009.61. The 50-share NSE Nifty fell to hold on to 8300 level, down 30 points at 8243.80.
The broader markets, too, were under pressure with the BSE Midcap down 0.3 percent as about 1532 shares declined against 1185 advancing shares.
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The benchmark indices on Friday settled higher thanks to early rollovers to January series and bargain hunting at lower levels after market witnessed seven straight sessions of losses. The S&P BSE Sensex finished at 26,040, up 61 points, while the broader Nifty50 closed at 7,985, up 6 points. The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, remained negative. On the BSE, 1,309 shares fell and 1,249 shares rose. A total of 174 shares were unchanged.
BSE Capital Goods and BSE Consumer durables were the top sectoral gainers and added nearly 1%.
Cipla was the top Sensex gainer and surged 4%, bouncing back 6.5% from intra-day low, after the pharmaceutical company said its flagship product Sereflo received final approval from UK health regulator.
For a week now demonetization of high value notes has been polarizing the country between those who totally support the idea and those who are against it. The move has had a big impact on the stocks markets. A lot of investors are withdrawing capital from stocks. Some because they are out of funds (since the currency they had at home no longer works) and others because they expect a crash, perhaps an opportunity to buy at lower levels.
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PNB Housing Finance is entering the primary market on Tuesday 25th October 2016, to raise Rs. 3,000 crore, via a fresh issue of equity shares of Rs. 10 each, in the price band of Rs. 750 to Rs. 775 per share. Based on the price discovered, company will issue 3.9 to 4.0 crore equity shares at the upper and lower end of the price band respectively. Representing 23.37% of the post issue paid-up share capital at the upper end, issue closes on Thursday 27th October.
51% subsidiary of Punjab National Bank, PNB Housing Finance is India’s 5th largest home loan provider (after HDFC, LIC Housing, Dewan and Indiabulls Housing) with loan book of Rs. 30,900 crore (30-6-16), 70% of which is housing loans, having average ticket size of Rs. 32 lakh. Average ticket size for non-housing loans, which constitute 30% of the loan book, is Rs 57 lakh. With operations mostly in the urban areas of North, South and West India, its loan book has posted CAGR of 62% between March 2012 to June 2016.
While FY16 revenue grew 52% YoY to Rs. 2,700 crore, Net interest income (NII) jumped 63% YoY to Rs. 840 crore, leading to net profit of Rs. 328 crore and EPS of Rs. 27.58, on equity of Rs. 126.92 crore. Net interest margin (NIM) of 2.98% was clocked in FY16, up from FY15’s 2.94%, while Return on average assets (RoA) stood at 1.35%, up from FY15’s 1.27%.
The stupendous financial performance continued into FY17, with revenue of Rs. 863 crore, NII of Rs. 255 crore and net profit of Rs. 96 crore for the June quarter. Q1FY17 EPS stood at Rs. 7.57. Despite the phenomenal growth, asset quality is has remained intact, infact better than industry average. Gross NPAs, as of 30-6-16, of Rs. 84 crore, represents 0.27% of gross assets.
As of 30-6-16, company had networth of Rs. 2,240 crore, translating to BVPS of Rs. 177. It has only 2 shareholders – parent Punjab National Bank (51%) and Carlyle Group (49%), the latter pursuant to its acquisition of Destimoney Enterprises in Feb 2015. Fresh issue proceeds of Rs. 3,000 crore will augment company’s capital base. Current capital adequacy ratio (CAR) stands at 13.04% vis-à-vis regulatory requirement of 12%.
Given the room which fresh capital will provide the company for further leverage, capital being lifeline for any finance business, FY17 expected EPS is estimated at about Rs. 35 per share. At Rs. 775, company’s market cap will be Rs. 12,837 crore, upon listing, based on expanded equity of Rs. 165.63 crore. Estimated BVPS, as of 31-3-17, is Rs. 340, which translates into PBV multiple of 2.3x, while the PE multiple works out to 22x, based on current year estimates.
Below is a comparison with other listed housing finance companies, both bigger and smaller than the company:
| Company Name
(Rs. Crore) |
Loan Assets
|
Revenue
|
PAT
|
Gross NPA %
|
Current Market Cap
|
Mcap % to loan assets
|
PE
|
PBV
|
|
As of 30-6-16
|
QoQ Growth
|
FY16
|
YoY growth
|
FY16
|
YoY growth
|
Margin
|
30-6-16
|
FY17E
|
FY17E
|
| LIC Housing |
1,27,437
|
1.8%
|
12,396
|
16.2%
|
1,661
|
19.8%
|
13.4%
|
0.59%
|
31,087
|
24%
|
16.9x
|
2.8x
|
| Dewan |
72,012
|
3.6%
|
7,312
|
22.2%
|
729
|
17.4%
|
10.0%
|
0.98%
|
10,455
|
15%
|
11.6x
|
1.7x
|
| Indiabulls Housing |
71,026
|
3.4%
|
8,290
|
28.2%
|
2,345
|
23.4%
|
28.3%
|
0.84%
|
37,121
|
52%
|
12.5x
|
2.7x
|
| PNB Housing |
30,901
|
13.7%
|
2,700
|
51.6%
|
328
|
68.9%
|
12.1%
|
0.27%
|
12,837*
|
42%*
|
22.1x*
|
2.3x*
|
| Gruh Finance |
11,543
|
3.9%
|
1,275
|
20.3%
|
244
|
19.5%
|
19.1%
|
0.56%
|
12,409
|
108%
|
44.3x
|
11.1x
|
| Can Fin |
11,183
|
5.1%
|
1,084
|
32.6%
|
157
|
82.1%
|
14.5%
|
0.24%
|
4,861
|
43%
|
22.1x
|
4.3x
|
* at upper end of price band of Rs. 775 per share
The growth rates which PNB Housing has posting is the highest in the industry (only Can Fin reported higher PAT growth in FY16, but its revenue and loan book growth was much lower). Moreover, PNB Housing’s NPAs have also been under check – 2nd best in the peer set. While net margins and RoE can improve further, based on valuation parameters of PBV multiple (2.3x) and market cap as a % to loan assets (42%), the pricing of the issue appears in-line. Growth visibility in the stock remains very high, given the fresh capital coming into the business, which provides added comfort.
Housing finance industry has been on a growth trajectory, with further headroom for growth. Company’s industry-leading growth coupled with sound fundamental position make it an attractive investment opportunity, albeit softening due to higher base.
Positive sector outlook coupled with stunning growth rates make the issue a subscribe.
Disclosure: No Interest.
The original article is authored by Geetanjali Kedia and is available here.
The week was marked by the announcement of results of IT bellwethers Infosys, TCS and Wipro. And of course, the torch bearer of the market, Reliance.
An action packed week came to an end and we do hope our followers would have made money.
Here are some of the picks from the week that just went by.
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