Nifty ends above 10,250, up 1.4% for the week; Sensex ends 301 pts higher


Benchmark indices rose for the second straight session on Friday amid hopes the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would win critical state elections in Gujarat beginning this weekend, while automakers gained on reports of an expected price hike next year.

The election in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state is a key test for the BJP, ahead of general elections in 2019. The results will be out later this month.

According to polls, the BJP could win, but with a reduced majority – an outcome that would still soothe investors, who are hoping for more political stability and have largely welcomed Modi’s reform agenda.

The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 33,250, up 301 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,265, up 98 points. Broader markets were in line with the frontline indices with BSE Midcap up 0.9% and BSE smallcap up 1%

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Reblog: Future Supply Chain IPO review


Future Supply Chain Solutions Ltd. (FSC) is one of India’s largest organized third-party logistics service operators. It offers automated and IT-enabled warehousing, distribution and other logistics solutions to a wide range of customers. Company’s service offerings, warehousing infrastructure, pan-India distribution network, “hub-and-spoke” transportation model and automated technology systems support its competitive market position. FSC’s customers operate in various sectors across India, including retail, fashion and apparel, automotive and engineering, food and beverage, fast moving consumer goods (“FMCG”), e-commerce, healthcare, electronics and technology, home and furniture and ATMs. According to management, its business model enables it to act as a service provider that can comprehensively cover customers’ supply chain needs. It currently operates with 14 hubs, 106 branches and dedicated containerized fleet of 526 vehicles. Its Mihan-Nagpur distribution center is the most modern and highly automated one.

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Reblog: Shalby Ltd IPO review


Shalby Ltd. (Shalby) is one of the leading multi-specialty chains of hospitals in India. Its hospitals are tertiary care hospitals, few of which also offer quaternary healthcare services to patients in various areas of specialization such as orthopedics, complex joint replacements, cardiology, neurology, oncology, and renal transplantations. As on the date of RHP, Shalby provided inpatient and outpatient healthcare services through 11 operational hospitals with an aggregate bed capacity of 2,012 beds. As on June 30, 2017, it had nine operational hospitals with an aggregate operational bed count of 841 beds. Shalby that has earned name and fame for joint replacement had a 15% market share of all joint replacement surgeries conducted by private corporate hospitals in India in 2016. As on the same date, it also provided outpatient services through 47 Outpatient Clinics and has ten shared surgery centres within third party hospitals, which are called “Shalby Arthroplasty Centre of Excellence” (“SACE”), where Shalby offers orthopedic healthcare services including surgeries. Since March 2007, it has conducted an aggregate of 92100 surgeries, and provided healthcare services to an aggregate of 1025533 patients, consisting 133652 inpatients and 891881 outpatients. Indian healthcare industry that was around Rs. 9.2 trillion in 2016 is expected to grow at a CAGR of around 15-16% to reach Rs.17.2 trillion by 2020.

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Reblog: 8 Life Lessons I Learned From Becoming a Trader


Although I’ve only been involved in the markets for about 10 years now, looking back, becoming a trader had a huge impact on me, and it profoundly changed me. It changed my way of thinking and looking at things, it challenged many of my previous beliefs and ultimately changed part of my personality. And it had repercussions in many other areas of my life.

I’d like to share with you a couple of life lessons I have learned from trading.

1- Being wrong is ok

We’ve been taught since we were kids that being right is good and being wrong is bad. It makes it very difficult for us to admit when we are wrong.

In trading, we are wrong very often. In fact, even the best traders out there are wrong between 40% to 60% of the time.

If you can’t keep your ego in check and admit quickly when you are wrong, you’re almost sure to lose all the money you have invested in the markets at some point. There is almost no way that you will make it as a trader unless you change your perspective on being wrong. Being right or wrong is just information, a feedback you use to adjust your actions. When you are wrong, the only thing to do is to stop being wrong by taking the right action.

2- Don’t dwell on missing an opportunity

What is fantastic with trading, is that, just like in real life, there is an endless stream of great opportunities that come our way. We just have to learn how to spot them. Just like trains, if you miss one, just get ready for the next one.

3- You are 100% responsible for your results

In the market despite having no influence whatsoever on the market, we are 100% responsible for our long-term results. The only way to be able to succeed in an environment you can’t control is to focus exclusively on the few variables you actually have control over. In life, despite not being able to choose where we come from, we have the power to take control of our destiny. We have to focus on what we can impact, what we can change. Blaming something or someone or the past is a complete waste of your precious time.

4- Listening to the media often is a waste of time

Before trading, I was a complete sucker for the news and social media. In order to improve my trading, I had no choice but to tune out the media noise in order not to be negatively influenced into deviating from my strategy and trading plan.

This made me realize that nothing bad actually happened to me since I stopped watching the news. In fact, my life got much better since then. Media are just money-making machines designed to make us become addicted.

5- What you focus on determines your results

Trading is one of the few endeavors where you have almost no boundaries. You are on your own and what you focus on becomes of utmost importance. I really discovered the importance of focus with trading. What you focus on in trading will literally determine your results.

If you focus on being right, you’ll probably lose a lot.

Focus too much on your recent winnings, and you will be prone to overconfidence.

Focus too much on your recent losses, and you will be scared of taking the next entry signal and more likely to change strategy.

Focus exclusively on trading while forgetting to analyze your past trades and results, and you will likely repeat the same mistakes over and over again.

Focus on listening to others, the news, social media, and you will be influenced by external opinions and prone to disregard your own rules or take trades outside of your strategy.

Focus on the money and it will be much harder to actually make money.

Focus on the process and positive expectancy, and money will follow.

6- I don’t have to be a slave to my thoughts

Trading made me discover that I had the power not to be a slave to my thoughts. By observing myself and the thoughts that cross my mind, I have more control over whether to act or not on those thoughts. This allows me to be calmer in stressful situations, where money is on the line for instance, and act in a more rational manner than I would have if I’d let my thoughts and emotional reactions take over.

7- You have to do things others won’t do in order to get things others don’t have

When we start trading, we are inclined to do what everybody is doing. We learn the same things as everybody else, read the same books, study the same chart patterns, the same indicators, listen to anyone who has an opinion, repeat the same mistakes over and over…

But since it is a well-known fact that 90% of traders fail, how can we hope to get different results by doing what the majority does?

In trading, just like in life, we have to think differently and do what others don’t in order to get what other people wish they had.

To be successful, you must be willing to do the things today others won’t do in order to have the things tomorrow others won’t have” – Les Brown

From my own experience, I discovered that most traders do not do thorough post-analysis of their trades and trading results. The overwhelming majority of new traders prefer very short time frames. They give too much importance to the outcome of a single trade. They focus exclusively on finding a way to have a high win rate, often to the detriment of risk/reward. They watch the news and get their trading ideas from others…

8- You can succeed at anything you want

Being able to beat the odds and become consistently profitable taught me that with patience, effort, drive, persistence, confidence and adaptability, they are very few things we can’t accomplish. With those qualities, that, fortunately, anyone can develop, you can almost be anything you want to be. Since I became a trader and discovered the limitless potential we all have in us, I developed my dream relationship with the woman I love, I became fluent in 3 languages, I became a bookworm, I launched a blog, I wrote an eBook, I traveled to many countries, … You just to have to decide on the few things you really want to accomplish and put all your focus and efforts toward those goals.

The original post appears on lonestocktrader.com and is available here


Sensex tanks 316 pts, Nifty ends below 10150 as Q2 GDP fails to lift spirit


In a volatile trading session on Friday, the benchmark indices ended lower with the Nifty50 settling the first day of December expiry below 10,200 as economic growth data came in largely as expected, failing to boost a market weighed down by concerns about the country’s fiscal deficit and global risk factors such as rising crude prices.

Data late on Thursday showed India’s gross domestic product grew 6.3% in July-September, in line with expectations, as businesses started to overcome troubles after the bumpy launch of Goods and Services Tax (GST).

The data failed to lift sentiment as country’s fiscal deficit reached 96% of the budgeted target for the fiscal year ending in March 2018, sending shares sharply lower on Thursday.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is meeting next week at a time of rising concern about a rally in crude prices, which rose following OPEC’s decision to extend production curbs.

The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 32,832, down 316 points, while the broader Nifty50 settled at 10,121, down 104 points.

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Reblog: The gray art of not quite insider trading


Scores of arrests and the indictment of SAC Capital have Wall Street spooked. But what’s the crime exactly? The SEC and the Supreme Court disagree. So nobody’s sure — and that’s how regulators like it. 

“We used to be able to talk to investigators on drug trials,” says Source A, a hedge fund portfolio manager. Like all the analysts, research directors, and portfolio managers who cooperated for this article, Source A requested anonymity. People don’t want their names in a story about gray areas of equities research that border on insider trading.

Four or five years ago, Source A continues, he and other health care analysts still used to get in touch with doctors who were serving as investigators in Phase II or Phase III trials, studies required by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration before a pharmaceutical can be approved as safe and effective. He might have been able to reach as many as eight out of 10 investigators running a study, and sometimes he could reach the principal investigator, the overseer of the whole thing.

“Say each investigator has 11 patients,” Source A continues. “You could almost go patient by patient,” asking how they were doing.

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Reblog: A Real Life Example of the Philip Fisher Scuttlebutt Approach


One of the greatest investors of all time, a man named Philip Fisher, developed a famous approach to investing research known as the “scuttlebutt”. He said that there was a lot of knowledge about a company that could give insight into its investment merits if the investor could merely find it out and synthesize it into a somewhat accurate and cohesive view of an entire corporation. Peter Lynch, arguably the greatest mutual fund manager in history, engaged in this when he was jumping on beds at La Quinta and driving around town checking out a new food chain known as Dunkin’ Donuts.

My husband and I drove quite a distance to check out some companies that had finally hit our “severely undervalued” targets after years and years of watching the stocks. One of the firms happened to be a confectioner. We spent the day speaking with a small business owner who had extensive experience with this particular company and bought more than $500 worth of products to take back to our office, have analyzed, and compare to the other manufacturers in the industry. We learned a great deal about the business that is common knowledge to those who work in the sector but you can’t necessarily glean from the regulatory filings such as the 10-Kand annual report.

For instance, there appears to be a struggle at headquarters between two factions: Those who want to dilute this particular brand and sell it through mass distributions outlets and those who want to keep it a premium product sold through a chain of heavily-controlled storefronts.

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Markets end positive for 7th straight session, up over 1% for the week


Benchmark indices ended positive for a seventh straight session on Friday led by IT firms, while bonds dipped on market talk of a potential sovereign ratings upgrade by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) later in the day.

Speculation about an S&P rating upgrade on India surfaced late on Thursday. This comes after a surprise upgrade by Moody’s last week.

Foreign investors have net bought $2.33 billion worth of Indian shares in November so far.

The S&P BSE index ended the day at 33,679, up 91 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,389, up 40 points. Infosys, Bajaj Auto, GAIL and Aurobindo Pharma were the top gainers, while BHEL, SBI, Hindalco and Vedanta were the top losers.

The S&P BSE Midcap and the S&P BSE Smallcap indices hit their respective new high on the BSE on Friday, following an extending rally in infrastructure, auto ancillary, education, textiles and public sector banks.

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Reblog: Why the Cup & Handle Chart Pattern Works


While my trading is more following capital flows based on trends that I measure with key moving averages there is one chart pattern that I find very useful and that has high probabilities of success.

The cup and handle pattern is a bullish continuation formation, it is one of the newer chart formations and can be easily identified on a price chart. This chart pattern was first popularized by William J. O’Neil in the first edition of his 1988 book, How to Make Money in Stocks. In order for the cup and handle setup to have the highest odds of succeeding, it should come after a clear uptrend is in place. The chart pattern consists of two key components: (1) cup and (2) handle.

The cup part of the formation is created when profit taking sets in or the market itself is in a correction and the stock sells off and forms the left side of the cup. The cup bottom is formed when the stock finally runs out of sellers at new low prices and buyers start moving in and bidding the stock back up again as sellers demand higher prices to turn the stock over. Most of the time as the stock emerges out of the right side of the cup in an uptrend it fails and meets resistance the first time it tries to break out to new high prices and the pattern forms a handle. The second run at new highs usually works as the sellers have been worked through and the stock breaks out to new highs.

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Reblog: The Individual Investor’s Edge


“The goal of the non-professional should not be to pick winners – neither he nor his “helpers” can do that – but should rather be to own a cross-section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well. A low-cost S&P 500 index fund will achieve this goal.” — Warren Buffett, 2013 Letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders

As Albert Einstein wisely stated, compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world:  He who understands it earns it while he who doesn’t pay it.  The vast majority of individuals who take the initiative to accumulate savings should follow Warren Buffett’s advice on using index funds and dollar cost averaging to achieve satisfactory returns over time.  For those earning at or above the median wage in the United States, it would be very difficult to end up poor if one simply saves ten to fifteen percent of gross income and dollar cost averages into the S&P 500 over several decades.

But what about non-professional individual investors who want to achieve better than average results?  In the short run, the stock market resembles a manic-depressive character who bids up prices one day and sends them down the following day without much of a reason for the change in sentiment.  Benjamin Graham’s “Mr. Market” character perfectly personifies the psychology of financial markets in the short run.

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