Sensex ends at new closing high of 37,337; ITC up 5% post Q1


The benchmark indices ended at record closing high for the second straight session on Friday on strong quarterly results. The gains were led by index heavyweights like ITC, RIL, and Hindalco.

The S&P BSE Sensex settled at a record high of 37,337, up 352 points, while the broader Nifty 50 index settled at a new high of 11,278, up 111 points.

In intra-day deals, the S&P BSE Sensex hit a fresh all-time high of 37368.62 while the Nifty50 index touched its record high level of 11,283.40.

Leading the gains is ITC, which has surged over 5 per cent on the BSE. Beating street estimates, diversified conglomerate ITC on Thursday posted a 10.07 per cent jump in its net profit at Rs 28.19 billion for the quarter ended June 30, 2018 with its total revenue, inclusive of other income, registered at Rs 112.78 billion.

Among other gainers, Reliance Industries was among the top contributors to the NSE index, up over 1.5 per cent ahead of its quarterly results later in the day. The oil-to-retail conglomerate will also report results of its telecom arm Reliance Jio.

Nifty Bank index also hit an all-time high, ending 0.8% higher for the day. IDFC Bank, Federal Bank, and Axis Bank were the top gainers in the pack, up between 2 per cent to 2.6 per cent.

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Reblog: Are We In A Bear Market?


You might be feeling it’s an odd title given CNX Nifty (which consists of India’s top 50 companies) is merely 3.7% below its all-time high of 11,171, hit in Jan 2018.

Median drop in Nifty 50 Stocks from their 52-week high though is 17%, but the index is holding up thanks to a few heavyweights like HDFC Duo & Reliance hitting lifetime highs.

But what about broader markets?

Following is some eye-popping performance data about the 1,584 stocks listed on BSE with a market capitalization of more than Rs 100 Cr. as on 25th June 2018:

Fall from 52-week high 
(Source: Ace Equity, Stalwart Advisors Research)
No. of Stocks
>= 60% 106
50% – 59% 175
40% – 49% 289
30% – 39% 359
20% – 29% 336

The median fall for these 1,584 stocks from their 52-week high is 34%.

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Reblog: IPO Analysis: HDFC Asset Management Company (AMC) Limited


Verdict: A ‘no-brainer’ Buy

IPO Snapshot:

HDFC Asset Management Company (AMC) Limited is entering the primary market on Wednesday 25th July 2018, with an offer for sale (OFS) of up to 2.55 crore equity shares of Rs.5 each, by both the promoters, HDFC (34% of OFS) and UK’s Standard Life (66% of OFS), in the price band of Rs. 1,095 to Rs. 1,100 per share. Representing 12.01% of the post issue paid-up share capital, total issue size is Rs. 2,800 crore at the upper end of the price band. The issue closes on Friday 27th July and listing is likely on 6th August, which will be the 5th listing from HDFC stable.

Company Overview:

HDFC AMC, 56.97% subsidiary of HDFC Ltd, with foreign JV partner UK’s Standard Life owning 37.98% stake, is India’s second largest AMC (behind ICICI Prudential) with asset under management (AUMs) of Rs.2.91 lakh crore (31-3-18) and 13.7% market share. Company is the largest AMC with equity oriented funds (at 51.3% of AUM vis-à-vis industry average of 43.2%), which also helps it become the most profitable AMC in India, having earned net profit of Rs. 722 crore in FY18 or 18.1% market share of the industry PAT, due to higher fees earned in equity as against debt product. Thus, with only 13.7% market share in total AUM, 16.8% market share in actively managed equity-oriented AUM help the company garner 18.1% market share in net profits of the industry, comprising of 42 players. Besides high profitability, company also enjoys benefit of retailisation of portfolio, with 62% AUM coming from retail investors, unlike industry average of ~50%, again highest market share in retail AUM of 15.7%. Systematic investment plan (SIP) products, with average ticket size of Rs. 3,800, also provide high revenue visibility, as 77% of company’s SIPs are signed up for 5 years.

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Reblog: Risk Is Not High Math


Smead Capital Management letter to investors  titled,”Risk Is Not High Math.”

Dear fellow investors,

Long term success in common stock ownership is much more about patience and discipline than it is about mathematics. There is no better arena for discussing this truism than in how investors measure risk. It is the opinion of our firm that measuring a portfolio’s variability to an index is ridiculous, because it is impossible to beat the index without variability.

We believe that how you measure risk is at the heart of how well you do as a long-duration owner of better than average quality companies. In a recent interview, Warren Buffett explained that pension and other perpetuity investors are literally dooming themselves by owning bond investments that are guaranteed to produce a return well below the obligations they hope to meet.

Buffett defines investing as postponing the use of purchasing power today to have more purchasing power in the future. For that reason, we see the risk in common stock ownership as a combination of three things; What other liquid asset classes can produce during the same time period, how the stock market does during the time period, and how well your selections do in comparison to those options. Why would professional investors mute long-term returns in a guaranteed way? The answer comes from how you define risk.

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Indices end higher as PM Modi likely to win no-trust vote


Benchmark indices gained on Friday, as the Modi government is expected to win the no-confidence vote, to be held at 6 pm today. In the 545-member (including the Speaker) Lok Sabha, the BJP-led NDA can bank on around 311 members.

The S&P BSE Sensex ended the day at 36,496, up 145 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 11,010, up 53 points.

IT and pharma stocks gained as the rupee hit an all-time low. The Nifty IT index was trading up by 1.5 per cent with Infosys, Tech Mahindra and HCL Tech up between 1.6 per cent to 2.6 per cent. Meanwhile, in the pharma sector, Sun Pharma and Cipla gained over 2.5 per cent each.

Among individual stocks, Bajaj Finserv hit a record high, after the Bajaj Group-owned asset & wealth management firm posted a 41 per cent surge in its first-quarter profit on Thursday.

Bajaj Auto, on the other hand, dipped 9 per cent after the company reported a lower than expected 21% year on year (YoY) growth in standalone net profit Rs 11.15 billion in June quarter (Q1FY19). Analysts on an average had expected a profit of around Rs 13 billion for the quarter

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Reblog: Bill Nygren: Value Investing Principles and Approach


Bill Nygren is a fund manager at Oakmark Funds. He is also Chief Investment Officer for U.S. Equities at Harris Associates. He’s particularly well-known for being a value investor who doesn’t fear the technology sector.

This post summarises key takeaways from his talk at Google in December 2017. While he reinforces many core value investing principles, he also challenges us to think differently.

The difference between gambling and investing

A value investor recognizes there are different ways she can put capital at risk and the difference between gambling (negative expected value) and investing in stocks (positive expected value)

Buying stocks like you would buy groceries

Bill observed the way his mother shopped for groceries by buying more of something that was on sale and deferring her purchase of something that wasn’t yet on sale

Smart money is not always smart

He spent two years as a research analyst at Northwestern Mutual Life where he pitched ideas of companies that he found were trading below their asset values. However, the portfolio managers chose not to buy such stocks until after they were recommended by 2-3 Wall Street analysts, by which time the price had moved to above asset values.

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Reblog: IPO Review – TCNS Clothing


Verdict: The Cool and Nice Stock

IPO Snapshot:

TCNS Clothing Co. Limited is entering the primary market on Wednesday 18th July 2018, with an offer for sale (OFS) of up to 1.57 crore equity shares of Rs.2 each by PE investor, promoters, current MD and former employees, all in the price band of Rs. 714 to Rs. 716 per share. Representing 25.63% of the post issue paid-up share capital, total issue size is Rs. 1,125 crore at the upper end of the price band. Issue closes on Friday 20th July and listing is likely on 30th July.

Company Overview:

TCNS Clothing Co. is a New Delhi head quartered branded apparel maker for ethnic women wear, operating 3 brands – W, Aurelia and Wishful, with sales mix of 57:33:8. Its 465 exclusive branded outlets (281 for W, 183 for Aurelia, 1 for Wishful) accounted for approximately 50% of FY18 topline of Rs. 838 crore. Further, products are sold through 1,469 large format stores, 1,522 multi-brand outlets and online/ e-commerce websites, which account for 28%, 11% and 10% of the topline respectively. While design operations are in-house, manufacturing is completely outsourced. The brand outlets, all on long term leases, are either company operated or franchised out. Company plans to open 75-80 new stores each year, to strengthen its brands.

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Reblog: How to use the P/E ratio


Valuations are looked at through the prism of cash flows, earnings, corporate governance, return ratios, debt-equity proportion and so on. Within these, the most primary valuation tool used by investors is the Price Earnings (P/E) ratio.

The P/E ratio is arrived at by dividing the stock market price with the company’s Earning Per Share (EPS). For example, a Rs 200 share price divided by EPS of Rs 20 represents a PE ratio of 10. Theoretically, it translated into the assumption that if we were to buy this company today it would take 10 years to earn back our investment.

The Trailing P/E ratio uses the earnings of the last 12 months, while the Forward P/E uses the expected earnings for the next 12 months, which means it requires estimating the forward earnings.

At Mumbai’s Morningstar Investment Conference in October, equity market strategist Ridham Desai and head of Morgan Stanley’s Indian equity research team tackled the subject of India’s high P/E.

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Infy ends 2% higher on Friday ahead of Q1 results; Sensex ends flat


The benchmark indices pared their day’s gains to end flat on Friday.

The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 36,542, down 7 points. The index had hit a fresh all-time high of 36,740.07 in intra-day deals earlier today tracking global markets ahead of information technology (IT) heavyweight Infosys June quarter earnings later in the day. The broader Nifty50 index settled at 11,019, down 4 points.

Among sectoral indices, the Nifty PSU Bank index fell over 2% weighed by a decline in Canara Bank and Indian Bank.

Shares of smallcap companies were under pressure with the S&P BSE Smallcap index falling more than 1% after a sharp decline in stock prices of PVR, KNR Constructions, Inox Leisure and Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals (GNFC).

Idea Cellular share price fell 2.7 per cent intraday on Friday after global research firm Credit Suisse maintained its Underperform rating on the stock with a target price at Rs 45, implying a 17 per cent downside. After the merger between the company and Vodafone, the new entity may prioritise cost savings over market share retention and the cost base should be close to current Bharti mobile cost base, the research house said.

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Reblog: Charlie Munger – How to Develop Your Own Investing Style


When it comes to the world’s best investors, Charlie Munger (Trades, Portfolio) is in a league of his own. For most of his career, Munger has been the right-hand man of Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio), which has, to some degree, limited his impact on the world of investing (although not by much). When people think of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B), it is Buffet, not Munger, who first comes to mind.

But that does not mean Munger has no investment skill. Indeed, before he joined Berkshire, he ran his ownq partnership where returns we as good as, if not better than, those of Buffett.

Still, for the past several decades, Munger has been known as Buffett’s right-hand man, so it is extremely likely he has had more influence on Buffett’s strategy than anyone else.

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