Sensex climbs 147 points as rupee firms; auto, metal stocks rally


The benchmark indices ended higher on Friday aided by strong gains in automobiles and metal stocks after the rupee firmed against US dollar. The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 38,390, up 147 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 11,589, up 52 points.

Among the sectoral indices, the Nifty Auto index settled 2.2 per cent higher led by a rise in the share prices of Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, Mahindra and Mahindra, and Tata Motors. Nifty Metal index, too, rose 1.9 per cent led by MOIL and Jindal Steel & Power.

The rupee was trading higher by 24 paise to 71.75 against the US currency in late morning deals on Friday due to sustained bouts of dollar selling from banks and exporters. Earlier, the rupee resumed slightly higher at 71.95 against yesterday’s closing level of 71.99 a dollar at the interbank foreign exchange market here.

Shares of YES Bank hit an over four-month low of Rs 322 per share, down 5% on the BSE on the back of heavy volumes. The stock was the largest loser among the S&P BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 index.

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Reblog: Burton Malkiel – How to Invest in an Overpriced World


Here’s a great article at the WSJ by Burton Malkiel, author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street and Chief Investment Officer of Wealthfront. Malkiel provides two strategies that might be worth considering in an overpriced world saying:

“What, then, can an investor do to control risk? The two strategies that work are broad diversification and rebalancing.”

Here’s an excerpt from that article:

What should an investor do when all asset classes appear overpriced? The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond currently yields about 2.6%, much lower than the 5% historical average and only slightly higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. Yields of lower-quality bonds are unusually meager compared with those of traditionally safe Treasurys.

For equities, the cycle-adjusted price/earnings ratio, or CAPE—the valuation metric that does the best job in predicting future 10-year rates of return—is about 34. That’s one of the highest valuations ever, exceeded only by the readings in 1929 and early 2000, prior to crashes. Today’s CAPE suggests that the 10-year equity rate of return will be barely positive.

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Reblog: What Investing Legends Do When the Stock Market Stumbles


Stocks have been all over the map this week.

Here are some top investing tips to consider amid the market volatility.

Ben Graham

Widely regarded as the “father of value investing,” Graham’s surgical analysis of stocks made him and his clients a great deal of money. But before he became Warren Buffett’s mentor or earned Wall Street’s reverence, Graham lost most of what had already become a small fortune in the stock market crash of 1929 and the ensuing Great Depression. It was then that Graham learned a hard lesson about risk-taking.

After that, Graham became one of the first to make investments based solely on financial analysis. Before his death in 1976, Graham’s philosophy was simple: invest in companies whose shares trade below the firm’s liquidation value. He implemented smart analysis of market psychology, investing by numbers when others did so by fear or greed.

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Sensex slips 45 points, RIL falls 2.75%; Rupee hits all-time low


The benchmark indices ended flat on Friday amid weakness in the rupee, which hit a new low breaching 71 per dollar mark for the first time earlier today.

The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 38,645, down 45 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 11,680, up 4 points.

Among sectoral indices, the Nifty Pharma index rose 2.7 per cent led by a rise in Lupin and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories. The Nifty IT index, too, settled 1.8 per cent higher led by Tech Mahindra and MindTree. However, Nifty Bank index slipped 0.15 per cent due to a fall in YES Bank’s shares.

The rupee slumped to a fresh record low of 71 against the dollar for the first time ever by falling 26 paise on persistent demand for the US currency amid rising crude prices. At the Interbank Foreign Exchange (Forex) market, the local currency opened lower at 70.95 a dollar and slipped further to hit its lifetime low of 71 from its previous close of 70.74.

J B Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals rose 1.51% to Rs 342.20 on BSE after the company’s board of directors the buy-back of equity shares. The announcement was made during market hours today, 31 August 2018.

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Reblog: How to Bear a Bull Market: The Psychology of Volatile Securities Trading


The U.S. stock market plunged Monday, with the Dow Jones falling nearly 1,600 points at one point, the biggest single-day drop in its history. It then turned around and regained 567 points on Tuesday. What the remainder of the week holds in store is anyone’s guess.

Many experts had been forecasting a decline for months after a prolonged upswing resulted in a series of record highs. Several factors are likely to have been involved. The Bureau of Labor Statistics January jobs report, released on Friday, was almost certainly one of them. It generated worries about inflation and bond yields, together with concern The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates faster than expected—events that may have “spooked” the markets.

Markets translate the decisions of millions of people into a price for a stock or bond. Like a spooked crowd in a public place, investors tend at times to run in the same direction—let’s all play the lottery or let’s escape the burning movie theater.

The work of visionaries such as Nobel laureates Richard Thaler and Daniel Kahneman has demonstrated humans do not operate as rational agents, as assumed by classical economics. From this realization have emerged disciplines such as behavioral economics, neuroeconomics and the like.

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Reblog: Some Common Mistakes by Investors


Over the last one year, I attended 3-4 fantastic value investing conferences. Many of the investors had spoken their heart out and many were not comfortable sharing their presentation publicly. Hence I have omitted the company and speaker names. But this compilation of mistakes of these investors could be helpful to both amateur and experienced investors.

Whenever I meet an experienced investor, I am more interested in their mistakes and not their success stories. I believe everyone investment philosophy should be as per their personality, so it’s not possible to follow someone else philosophy. But we can learn a lot from other’s mistakes.  According to Dhirendra Kumar of fund tracker Value Research, Prashant Jain of HDFC mutual fund did not manage funds differently from other fund managers. “He just kept it simple and committed lesser mistakes,”. Read this fantastic article by Shane Parrish on Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance to understand the importance of studying mistakes.

Here is the list of mistakes shared by investors:

Management

  • Overlooking obvious good companies because of some small wrong acts of management eg. High remuneration, preferential issues at lower price etc. Refusing to invest in micro and small cap with fantastic business model and growth because of some IGNORABLE wrong acts of management is one of the most common mistakes.

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Sensex slips 85 points as private banks drag, Yes Bank falls 3.5%


The benchmark indices settled marginally lower on Friday weighed by financials and consumer stocks amid caution in global markets.

The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 38,252, down 85 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 11,557, down 26 points.

Among key stocks, Yes Bank and ICICI Bank were among the top losers on the BSE, falling 3.5 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively.

On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the Nifty Bank index settled 0.7 per cent lower weighed by Yes Bank, Bank of Baroda and ICICI Bank.

Shares of selected pharmaceutical companies were in focus with Amrutanjan Health Care, Pfizer, Merck and Novartis India rallying up to 18% on the BSE in otherwise subdued market. All these stocks were trading at their respective all-time highs.

Analysts remain bullish on Larsen & Toubro (L&T) and have maintained a ‘buy’ rating on the stock despite the company’s buyback proposal. The company, at its meeting on Thursday, approved a proposal to buy back up to 60 million equity shares at a maximum price of Rs 1,500 per equity share for an amount of Rs 90 billion.

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Reblog: What To Do When Your Stocks Are Soaring?


Bull markets seem like they should be easier than the alternative but even dealing with gains can be challenging as an investor. Research shows that investors trade more often during bull markets because we don’t know what to do with gains, it’s difficult to hold winners, and there are constant temptations with even bigger winners elsewhere. This piece I wrote for Bloomberg looks at how to deal with big gainers in your portfolio.

*******Major stock indexes are hitting new highs almost daily, adding to the huge gains many securities have posted in recent years. For example, Nvidia Corp. has gained almost 1,800 percent since the start of 2013. Over the past five years or so, Netflix is up 1,375 percent; Tesla is up 835 percent; Facebook is up 590 percent, and Amazon has risen 380 percent. Bitcoin is up more than 900 percent in 2017 alone.If you’ve been fortunate enough to be involved in any of these equities or other market stars, you made the right choice. But investors would be wise to work through their options on how to handle these stocks. Large gains in your portfolio are a good problem to have, but the good news also comes with psychological baggage. Continue Reading

Reblog: A Little Knowledge is Dangerous


20How to Deal with Overconfidence in Financial Markets

It had been a little over a week since anyone had seen Karina Chikitova. The forest she had walked into nine days prior was known for being overrun with bears and wolves. Luckily, she was with her dog and it was summer in the Siberian Taiga, a time when the night time temperature only dropped to 42 degrees (6 Celsius). However, there was still one major problem — Karina was just 4 years old.

Despite the odds against her survival, Karina was found two days later after her dog wandered back to town and a search party retraced the dog’s trail. You might consider Karina’s 11 day survival story a miracle, but there is a hidden lesson beneath the surface.

In his book Deep Survival: Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why, Laurence Gonzales interviews Kenneth Hill, a teacher and psychologist who manages search and rescue operations in Nova Scotia. When Gonzales asks Hill about those who survive versus those who don’t, Hill’s response is surprising (emphasis mine):

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Sensex settles 284 points higher as banks, FMCG stocks rally


The benchmark indices settled higher on Friday taking cues from their Asian peers.

The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 37,948, up 284 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 11,471, up 86 points.

Among key stocks, the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) major ITC rose over 2 per cent to end at Rs 313 levels on the BSE. The stock hit a fresh 52-week high of Rs 315 earlier today. ICICI Bank and State Bank of India also ended higher in a range of 1.8 to 3.0 per cent on the BSE.

Among sectors, the Nifty Pharma index ended higher for the fourth straight day, hitting an over six-month high on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Lupin, Aurobindo Pharma and Cadila Healthcare from the index, were up in the range of 1 per cent to 4 per cent on the NSE.

Shares of paper companies were trading higher on the bourses on expectations of a positive outlook for the current July-September quarter.

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