Reblog: John Murphy’s Ten Laws of Technical Trading


StockCharts.com’s Chief Technical Analyst, John Murphy, has created another set of trading rules:   “Ten Laws of Technical Trading:”

“Which way is the market moving? How far up or down will it go? And when will it go the other way? These are the basic concerns of the technical analyst. Behind the charts and graphs and mathematical formulas used to analyse market trends are some basic concepts that apply to most of the theories employed by today’s technical analysts.”

The following are John’s ten most important rules of technical trading:

  • Map the Trends
  • Spot the Trend and Go With It
  • Find the Low and High of It
  • Know How Far to Backtrack
  • Draw the Line
  • Follow That Average
  • Learn the Turns
  • Know the Warning Signs
  • Trend or Not a Trend?
  • Know the Confirming Signs

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Reblog: 15 Quotes From Legends In Sports That Will Help Boost Your Trader’s Mindset


That Will Help Boost Your Trader’s Mindset

Being a top athlete takes a lot of grit and perseverance. Because whenever one feels complacent is exactly when one might fall flat on one’s face. So, professional sports are constant acts of pushing past limits. And not every person can manage such levels of physical and mental efforts.

That is why top athletes often have these extraordinary nuggets of wisdom they occasionally share with the world. And what’s fascinating is how these pearls of wisdom are relevant in trading. But not only — they’re also relevant in business, relationships; in fact, they’re relevant in life in general.

Here are some of the best motivational statements by legends in sports:

1. Success is where preparation and opportunity meet. – Bobby Unser, automobile racer

In trading: Rash decisions that will leave you in a weak position. Always come prepared.

Trader's mindset Michael jordan

2. Obstacles don’t have to stop you. If you run into a wall, don’t turn around and give up. Figure out how to climb it, go through it, or work around it.  – Michael Jordan, basketball icon

In trading: When failure smiles at you, the best thing you can do is smile back, while acknowledging that the lessons that stick are those that hurt. Your failures are stepping stones on your way to success.

3. I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I’ve been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed. – Michael Jordan

In trading: Again, be patient with yourself. At first, you will make mistakes; you will fail. But you want to fail. You need to fail. Failure is good for you. It builds resilience of mind; develops wisdom; it is the foundation upon which mastery, success, and happiness rest upon.

4. In baseball and in business, there are three types of people. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen, and those who wonder what happened. – Tommy Lasorda, Hall of Fame baseball player and manager

In trading: You miss 100% of the trades you don’t take. Stay active, trade small. Engagement leads to success. There is no overtrading if you’re trading a proven system.

5. There may be people that have more talent than you, but there’s no excuse for anyone to work harder than you do. – Derek Jeter, longtime Yankees shortstop

In trading: You have to depend on your own work ethics to get ahead in this field. Don’t wait for trade ideas from others. Work on being completely self-reliant.

6. Everybody’s got plans… until they get hit. – Mike Tyson, boxing icon

In trading: The satisfaction of instincts cannot be the main way by which you place and manage your trades. You need a plan, and you need to follow it with consistent and conscientious regularity.

Trader's mindset Arnold Schwarzenegger

7. Strength does not come from winning. Your struggles develop your strengths. When you go through hardships and decide not to surrender, that is strength. – Arnold Schwarzenegger, professional bodybuilder, actor, businessman, politician

In trading: Muscles need a certain amount of stress in order to grow. It is with muscles as it is with life –meaningful growth requires challenge and stress. So, don’t think of losses, mistakes, and failures as the end of the world. They’re just opportunities for growth.

8. Bodybuilding is much like any other sport. To be successful, you must dedicate yourself 100% to your training, diet and mental approach. – Arnold Schwarzenegger

In trading: Whoever focuses solely on his/her market edge while neglecting his/her trading psychology will soon discover trading to be an unwinnable battle.

9. Champions keep playing until they get it right. – Billie Jean King, International Hall of Fame tennis star

In trading: Whatever you do, trade small. If you can’t stay in the game, you can’t learn. It’s simple as that. Failures and mistakes have to be small —so small that they can teach you instead of ruining you. If they’re too big, you’ll eventually get booted out of the game.

10. A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be. – Wayne Gretzky, hockey icon

In trading: It doesn’t take a lot to predict price action (human behavior) and capitalize on it. You only have to assume that people will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence. With that in mind, you need a plan to guide your own behavior, and you need to trade that plan with discipline and vision.

11. Always make a total effort, even when the odds are against you. – Arnold Palmer, golf legend

In trading: Part of being a good trader is knowing how to go through drawdowns with grace, courage, patience, and vision.

12. The more difficult the victory, the greater the happiness in winning. – Pele, Brazilian, soccer legend

In trading: You fall, you fail, but after some time, you learn. And eventually, you master! Then get-rich-quick prospectors watch you from the outside, jaw hanging. They see how trading is simple and they think it’s a straight line. It never is.

Trader's mindset Muhammad Ali

13. He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life. – Muhammad Ali, Boxing icon

In trading: Here’s something that’ll raise a lot of eyebrows: Even if you’re a consistently profitable trader, you will never become incredibly wealthy by being too conservative. For that to happen, you gotta be wild sometimes, take some daring bets, with size, and be truly ok with failure.

14. It isn’t the mountains ahead to climb that wear you out; it’s the pebble in your shoe. – Muhammad Ali

In trading: When you approach the markets with equanimity, all mental stories are thrown away, and what remains is just the market as it is.

15. Persistence can change failure into extraordinary achievement. – Matt Biondi

In trading: Patience/ resilience/ non-delusion will be rewarded by the markets.

Bonus. If you aren’t going all the way, why go at all? – Joe Namath, Hall of Fame football quarterback

In trading: Resilience is key! Do what you have to do to stay in the game long-term. In due time, you’ll be able to:

  • Trade and understand the market like no one
  • Trade with size
  • Turn small accounts into big accounts

And best of all: Nobody will be able to take that away from you.

The original compilation is by Yvan, appears on tradingcomposure.com and is available here.


Reblog: 4 Simple Relative Strength Index (RSI) Trading Strategies


In this article, we will cover one of the most popular oscillators – the relative strength index (RSI).  You have probably read a number of general articles on the RSI; however, in this post I will present four trading strategies you can use when trading.

Before we dive into the strategies, let’s first ground ourselves on the RSI indicator and provide you with a few techniques not widely known.

Relative Strength Index Definition

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the most popular indicators in the market.

The RSI is a basic measure of how well a stock is performing against itself by comparing the strength of the up days versus the down days.  This number is computed and has a range between 0 and 100.  A reading above 70 is considered bullish, while a reading below 30 is an indication of bearishness.

Relative Strength Index Formula

The RSI was developed by J.Welles Wilder and detailed in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems in June of 1978. For all you hardcore technicians, below is the relative strength index formula example.

The default setting for the RSI is 14 days, so you would calculate the relative strength index formula as follows:

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How to use the Convergence Tool?


Introducing the Convergence Tool from StockArchitect

What is convergence?

In simple terms when different moving averages are in a range of 1%, convergence is said to have occurred. In the Convergence Tool, we are using 4, 9, 18, 50 and 200 DMA (daily moving average) to determine convergence.

After you have subscribed to the convergence tool (or during the 7 day free trial period as the case maybe), you will see this screen below:

As you can see we work on 4, 9, 18, 50 and 200 MA.

The “Within Range” column displays 2 values

  1. Yes which means a convergence of 5
  2. No (4) or No (3) which means convergence of 4 or 3 respectively.

How do I make use of the data displayed by the Convergence Tool?

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Reblog: 9 books about financial markets you really should read


Earlier this week I wrote (again) about the importance of understanding financial market history. This prompted a few people to ask for some of my favourite books on the topic. Here goes:

Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation

If I had to pick just one book to read on the topic, this would be the one. Edward Chancellor weaves history, psychology, and economics beautifully in what is also one of the better-named finance books I’ve come across.

The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned From the Market’s Perfect Storm

The story behind the banking crisis most people probably aren’t familiar with. This book shows how primitive the financial markets were before banking regulations and the Fed came around.

The Great Depression: A Diary

This first-person account of what life was like during the Great Depression is not only a lesson in financial market history but also how difficult that period in history was for those living through it. I can’t recommend this one enough.

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Reblog: The Top 10 Biases of Emotional Investing


Emotions aren’t always your friend when it comes to investing. In fact, they can lead to trouble in some very specific ways…

Here’s today’s understatement of the year: emotion plays a major role in investing.

Whether it’s the gold rush leading to 2008’s crash, momentum trends that cause a stock to orbit its true value or the irrational exuberance of the 1990s, the stock market is filled with people who act like, well… human beings. Perhaps unsurprisingly, this has its strongest expression when it comes to individual investors.

That’s not always bad. Emotions come into any big decision, and it’s important to feel good about your portfolio. Emotions dictate risk tolerance, after all. The same goes for picking companies with a strong sense of mission. Those are the decisions that help you sleep at night.

The problems start when emotions become biases. That’s when you, as an investor, can make bad choices that don’t leave you personally or financially any better off. What do those biases look like? Here are the top ten to keep an eye out for the next time you open up the portfolio…

10. Overconfidence

Bias: Focusing on an actual or perceived expertise on a narrow slice of the market

Overconfidence isn’t necessarily what it sounds like. Yes, sometimes this bias is caused by an investor who knows less than he thinks. That guy who caught 15 minutes of “Mad Money” and then gives lectures at a dinner party is a classic example.

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The Financial threats that machines can see


The original article appears on BloombergView and is available here. The author is Mark Buchanan.

Who's watching whom?

Humans have a terrible track record of predicting financial crises in time to fend them off. Some computer scientists think that algorithms might help.

Given the right information, some crises can be foreseen. In “The Big Short,” Michael Lewis told the story of the scattered few who saw the imbalance growing in the mortgage market and profited as a result. Over decades, academic research has shown that many banking crises come with early warning signals, such as rapidly increasing debt and leverage. Yet economists and policy makers routinely miss such danger signs, in part because the financial world is so complex.

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