Reblog: Does Your Trading Psychology Have A Dark Side?


Having worked with highly skilled traders of financial markets at a variety of money management organizations, I’ve noticed one distinctive marker of success: the great traders leverage one or more great strengths in their personalities and in their information processing. Those strengths differ from one exemplary money manager to another, but in each case some distinctive strength is evident.

One portfolio manager, for example, is introverted and highly analytical. He works from an enclosed office that creates a quiet, distraction-free environment. His trading draws upon patterns in high frequency data not tracked by the vast majority of market participants. When those patterns appear, his software enters orders in the market, essentially eliminating any subjective elements from his decision-making. This automation frees him up to conduct new research for much of his day. By leveraging his analytical capacities and emotional self-control, he has created an approach to trading that has been successful for over a decade.

A second portfolio manager is quite different. He is quite extroverted and works on an open trading floor with a team of junior traders. He watches markets closely and continually communicates with market participants on the buy and sell sides. He is unusually skilled at distilling what others are thinking and feeling, particularly as markets are moving. He explains that his “edge” in trading is his ability to feel the fear and greed of others and exploit the biases in decision making that result from these emotions. For example, he detects unusual bearishness and risk-aversion among traders prior to a central bank meeting. When the meeting produces little surprise, he quickly takes the other side and accumulates a large position. By leveraging his social competencies, he also has crafted an approach to trading that has yielded long-term success.

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Reblog: The Importance Of Time Horizons For Investing (And Beyond)


The Importance of Time Horizons

 When it comes to evaluating market risk, your time horizon is a key factor to consider. As a general rule, shorter time horizons require more caution than do longer ones. I would also argue, however, that this concept applies to many areas of investing—and beyond.

Long-term investing

Let’s start with why longer-term results can be more predictable than shorter-term ones. The answer is, simply, averaging. One data point might be noisy, but as you accumulate more and average them, the outliers tend to offset each other. As a result, the signal starts to dominate the noise. The more data points you have, the closer you get to the expected result. Investors with 40 years, for example, can look at longer-term return goals with a reasonable expectation of actually getting them. But for shorter time frames, the noise can dominate. Hence, the extra caution needed as you get closer to retirement.

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Reblog: YES, MUTUAL FUNDS CAN STAND OUT FROM THE HERD


Forbes Magazine, Dec. 19, 1994

At the typical stock-fund office, phalanxes of computer screens glow like the control room of a nuclear reactor. The portfolio manager is an intense young MBA. He can recite earnings estimates by rote for each of the 100 stocks in his billion-dollar fund. He’s a high-pressure guy, the atmosphere is electric with excitement, and the phones are always ringing. All this costs money, but the managers have to justify themselves. What are they for if not to trade in and out of stocks?

Yet all this striving does nothing for most fund investors. Although the industry has its good years, over long periods of time the average U.S. stock fund does worse than a market index. No wonder: Typical annual expenses run to 1.3% of assets.

George Mairs, 66, does things differently. Mairs & Power, Inc., founded by Mairs’ father in 1931, has nine employees and runs a total of $300 millon out of the old First National Bank Building in St. Paul, Minn. Nearly all that money is in separate accounts. Mairs & Power Growth Fund has $41 million in assets; a balanced mutual fund, Mairs & Power Income Fund, runs $13 million.

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Leveraging The Collective Wisdom


Recently, a team member came across this article in Forbes Magazine which talked about leveraging the collective wisdom of people in the organisation.  Extending that same thought process, can’t we do something similar when investing. We have investors, analysts etc. discussing their ideas and stock picks on social media. Why can’t we leverage their collective wisdom to make the right pick? Think on it.

Do you have a solution in place that can help you achieve this? Yes help is at hand.
www.stockarchitect.com is the URL for getting the answers to the questions you seek. Do visit the website and give us your valued feedback.

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