Reblog: Vital Advice From Howard Marks


I am fascinated with history, or more specifically, market history and how investors reacted during different periods of different markets cycles.

Partly because I’m interested in history and partly because I want to be prepared for every market environment, I like to seek out investor letters and commentary from some of the best investors of all time during periods of market stress, such as the dot-com bubble or financial crisis.

Howard Marks (Trades, Portfolio) is undoubtedly one of the best commentators in this regard. His regular memos to investors have maintained the same investing framework ever since he started writing them in 1990. All that has changed during this period is the market environment. That’s very clear throughout the letters as Marks applies his cool, value-focused mind to every climate no matter what the prevailing consensus among Wall Street analysts.

The dot-com bust

I recently stumbled across one of Marks’ memos from 2000. Titled “We’re Not In 1999 Anymore, Toto,” the letter is a perfect example of Marks’ investing style. Just after the dot-com bubble had burst, the highly acclaimed billionaire uses the memo to provide a post-mortem on the market environment, and a look at what went wrong, as well as what went right.

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Reblog: Why Everyone Is a Value Investor


Mention value investing and the phrase brings up different connotations for different people.

Some investors see value as a style as a dead regime, something stuffy old investors like Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) live by, and their devout following of the strategy has cost them big time as they have missed out on some of the market’s best opportunities.

On the other hand, you have the devout value investors, those who remain fully committed to the strategy initially set out by Benjamin Graham and his partner David Dodd, all those years ago, even though this strategy has generated relatively lackluster returns over the past decade.

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Reblog: Charlie Munger – How to Develop Your Own Investing Style


When it comes to the world’s best investors, Charlie Munger (Trades, Portfolio) is in a league of his own. For most of his career, Munger has been the right-hand man of Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio), which has, to some degree, limited his impact on the world of investing (although not by much). When people think of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B), it is Buffet, not Munger, who first comes to mind.

But that does not mean Munger has no investment skill. Indeed, before he joined Berkshire, he ran his ownq partnership where returns we as good as, if not better than, those of Buffett.

Still, for the past several decades, Munger has been known as Buffett’s right-hand man, so it is extremely likely he has had more influence on Buffett’s strategy than anyone else.

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Reblog: How to Value Invest in a Bull Market: Advice From Irving Kahn


You might not be aware of him, but Irving Kahn is one of the best value investors to have ever lived.

Unlike other, more famous value investors, Kahn kept a relatively low profile during his career, but that does not mean his advice is any less relevant.

Born in 1905, Kahn’s investing career began in 1928. He continued value investing until his death a few years ago. Kahn was one of the few value investors who were able to learn from the godfather of value investing himself, Benjamin Graham. In fact, Kahn worked closely with Graham over his career, even assisting as Graham’s teaching assistant at Columbia University Business School. He went on to contribute to Graham’s bible on value investing, “Security Analysis,” by providing some statistical help.

Such a close relationship with Graham helped Kahn build his value mentality, and he was able to add to this base education over the course of his career as he rode through the peaks and troughs of the market.

Indeed, Kahn’s long life gave him an unrivaled knowledge of the market, stocks and trading psychology. Kahn’s career started in the days when it was not easy to find an undervalued equity; you had to do the hard work yourself:

“I understand that net-net stocks are not too common anymore, but today’s investors should not complain too much because there were only a handful of industries in which to look for stocks in the old days. Now there are so many different types of businesses in so many different countries that investors can easily find something. Besides, the Internet has made more information available. If you complain that you cannot find opportunities, then that means you either haven’t looked hard enough or you haven’t read broadly enough.”

Kahn wrote few thought pieces over his career but those he did pen are fascinating. In 2012, a letter to Kahn’s investors from himself was published on Bloomberg. It contained some advice on the state of the market and thoughts on the market rally that was in place since 2009:

“I’ve seen a lot of recoveries. I saw crash, recovery, World War II. A lot of economic decline and recovery. What’s different about this time is the huge amount of quote-unquote information. So many people watch financial TV—at bars, in the barber shop. This superfluity of information, all this static in the air.

There’s a huge number of people trading for themselves. You couldn’t do this before 1975, when commissions were fixed by law. It’s a hyperactivity that I never saw in the ’40s, ’50s, and ’60s. A commission used to cost you a hell of a lot; you couldn’t buy and sell the same thing 16 times a day.”

With many decades of experience behind him at this point, Kahn’s views on the level of trading being conducted by investors are fascinating. This was only a few years ago, and in that time trading volumes have picked up further still. If Kahn thought there was too much information around in 2012, what would he have thought today?

What was his advice at the time? Well, Kahn warned readers that, considering the level of the market and overtrading, it’s best to look to protect the downside, don’t take on too much risk and stick to the basics because you never know when the decline will come:

“You say you feel a recovery? Your feelings don’t count. The economy, the market: They don’t care about your feelings. Leave your feelings out of it. Buy the out-of-favor, the unpopular. Nobody can predict the market. Take that premise to heart and look to invest in dollar bills selling for 50¢. If you’re going to do your own research and investing, think value. Think downside risk. Think total return, with dividends tiding you over. We’re in a period of extraordinarily low rates—be careful with fixed income. Stay away from options. Look for securities to hold for three to five years with downside protection. You hope you’re in a recovery, but you don’t know for certain. The recovery could stall. Protect yourself.”

The original article is authored by Rupert Hargreaves and is available here.


Reblog: How to Act in a Bear Market: Part 2


Last time, I wrote an article discussing a valuable piece of advice from Seth Klarman (Trades, Portfolio) on how to act in falling markets.

The key message of the article was that in a bear market, the best strategy to follow is to continue as you always have. As Klarman notes, “Controlling your process is absolutely crucial to long-term investment success in any market environment.” The last thing you should do is try to time the market:

“While it is always tempting to try to time the market and wait for the bottom to be reached (as if it would be obvious when it arrived), such a strategy has proven over the years to be deeply flawed…the price recovery from a bottom can be very swift. Therefore, an investor should put money to work amidst the throes of a bear market, appreciating that things will likely get worse before they get better.”

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Reblog: Seth Klarman: How to Act in a Bear Market


In today’s market, after nearly a decade of low volatility and steadily rising stock prices, it is easy to forget the turmoil that gripped the stock market, and the world, in 2008-09.

Even though a crash might seem a million miles away currently, you never know when the next decline might arrive, so it is always best to prepare for the worst. The best way to prepare is to read accounts of investors given at the time.

This will not give you answers as to when the next crash will arrive (all but impossible to predict), but it will provide a sort of template as to what goes on.

Learning from Klarman

One of the most fascinating accounts of investing during the crisis comes from Seth Klarman (Trades, Portfolio). In February 2009, Klarman wrote an article in Value Investor Insight titled, “The Value of Not Being Sure.” Within the article, he detailed how he was investing in the crisis and why he thinks fear is such a great motivator.

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