Reblog: The Lifecycle of Greed and Fear


All greed starts with an innocent idea: that you are right, deserve to be right, or are owed something for your efforts. It’s a reasonable feeling.

But economies have three superpowers: competition, adaptation, and social comparison.

Competition means life is hard. Business is hard. Investing is hard. Not everyone gets a prize, even if they think they’re right and deserving.

Adaptation means even those who get prizes get used to them quickly. So the bar of adequate rewards move perpetually higher.

Comparison means every prize is measured only relative to those earned by other people who appear to be trying as hard as you.

And economies crave productivity. Getting more for doing less. It’s a universal and relentless force.

The feeling that you deserve a prize, even when success is hard, content is fleeting, and rewards are measured relative to others, combined with an economy that constantly wants more prizes for doing less, is the early seed of greed. It fuels both the push for more (great) and the lack of satisfaction when you get more (potentially dangerous).

Once people get a taste of reward – especially an above-average one – delusion can creep in. Sometimes it’s luck misidentified as skill. Or an inflated sense of the value you produce. Or overconfidence in your ability to find another reward.

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Reblog: Psychology of fear


 

The stock market has a long history of humbling investors. The Investment Masters understand the need for humility. Ordinarily, when investors have had a good run they risk getting over-confident and letting down their guard, only to have the stock market deliver them losses.

Many of the Investment Masters maintain a psychology of fear.

“It is better if you invest scared, if you worry about losing money, if you worry about being wrong, if you worry about being overconfident because these are the things you want to avoid. They should be foremost in your mind.” Howard Marks

“We are big fans of fear, and in investing it is clearly better to be scared than sorry.” Seth Klarman Continue Reading