Traditional wisdom suggests that when it comes to investing, timing is everything. But is it?
We’ve witnessed shock after shock in the political arena over the past year, which has repeatedly jolted the markets into action.
For investors, it’s difficult to sit tight amid all this noise, and you might feel encouraged to sell out of stocks to try to protect yourself from the falls. But by selling out early, you could end up missing out on the gains.
Timing the markets is effectively a double whammy in crystal ball gazing, because not only do you have to predict the outcome of these events (and just note how shocked most of us were about the Brexit vote), but also how the markets are going to react.
Disaster domino effect
Mark Northway of Sparrows Capital says the events which have transpired over the past year have provided opportunities for fund managers to “test their mettle” and trade in and out of the turbulence.
Continue Reading →
In August, I mentioned that I had chosen the title “Political Reality” for my memo in part because of my liking for oxymorons. I classed that title with other internally contradictory statements, such as “jumbo shrimp” and “common sense.” Now I’m going to discuss one more: “expert opinion.”
This memo was inspired by a thought that popped into my head when the outcome of the election settled in. You may point out that at the end of my November 14 memo “Go Figure!,” I said I wouldn’t write any more about politics. True, but I didn’t say I wouldn’t think about politics. Anyway, this memo isn’t about politics, it’s about opinions.
Last spring I attended a dinner where one of Hillary Clinton’s senior advisers was soliciting input, as she and her campaign were struggling to come up with an effective counter to Bernie Sanders’s populist message. Most of those present expressed frustration on the subject, until an experienced, connected Democrat assured everyone, “Don’t worry. She’ll win. The math is irresistible.” The Hillary supporters were relieved, and he turned out to be right: she won the nomination going away.
In late October, with the issue of Clinton’s private email server and the FBI’s new investigation further dogging her, that same seasoned Democrat was asked whether the election was in jeopardy. “Don’t worry,” he said. “She’ll win. The math is irresistible.” We all know the result.
Continue Reading →
The original interview with Rakesh Jhunjhunwala appeared on The Economic Times and is available here.
In an exclusive interview with ET Now, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Partner, Rare Enterprises, says markets could correct any time it is going to correct more time wise rather than price wise. Edited excerpts
ET Now: I want to start with something which I picked up on my WhatsApp couple of days ago and it says that there is a strong market rumour that a big bull, which is you, has informed his close circle of friends and his associates that markets have topped out and now we may see a significant correction going forward. Have you told your friends anything like this?
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala: My opinion especially in oil, I think $60 for oil is not to be crossed. Onshore oil costs $3 and the fracking capacity is 10%, 15% of oil capacity in America. The whole world has still not even started and in lot of other countries there are not so many as might have been concerns as there are in America. Third thing is with lower prices, OPEC countries are compelled to produce more because of the cost. So I think personally oil prices at $60 is a line which is not going to be crossed, it is a prediction, I reserve the right to be wrong but it is my opinion that to cross it is very, very difficult. Even in other metal areas, I am not very bullish on prices. I think metal prices in general may have topped out.
Continue Reading →
The Sensex recouped 500 points loss in the last couple of hours of trade, especially after recovery in Europe but still ended sharply lower after the UK voted to leave European Union.
The index fell 604.51 points or 2.24 percent to 26397.71 and the Nifty slipped 181.85 points or 2.20 percent to 8088.60.
About 1823 shares declined against 709 advancing shares on BSE.
Tata Motors cracked 8 percent and Tata Steel fell 6 percent as both companies have huge exposure to Europe.
European markets were down 5-8 percent.
Here are some picks from the week gone by.
Continue Reading →
