Reblog: Why you shouldn’t try to trade like George Soros


George Soros, founder of Soros Fund Management LLC

 

Traders tend to be overconfident and discount what they don’t know about the market and individual securities. They see patterns instead of random noise. And they have a hard time admitting their losses and focus too much on gains.

In summarizing the science of behavioral finance, Statman says we’re pretty much hard-wired to consistently make these mistakes — and lose money. Since we tend to think of ourselves as better than average on most everything from driving to investing, it clouds our rational judgment. A body of research has found this to be particularly true when it comes to amateur stock traders.

Statman said that average returns of frequent traders “lag those of infrequent traders and the average returns of infrequent traders lag average returns of investors who abstain from trading.”

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Sensex ends flat but up 2% for the week, Nifty settles below 10,350


The Nifty50 index pared gains to end in negative after hitting record highs earlier in the session, as Yes Bank slumped nearly 10% on concerns over bad loans. The Sensex ended flat but at new closing high for the day.

The NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex were gained more than 1.5% each for the week after the cabinet’s decision to inject $32.4 billion into state-run lenders over the next two years boosted sentiment.

Reliance Industries, oil marketing companies, metals, Bharti Group, select banks and technology stocks saw selling pressure whereas NBFCs, Tata Group stocks, ICICI Bank and ITC supported the market.

State-run oil marketing major, Indian Oil, reported a fall of 18.7% in its net profit for September quarter at Rs 3,696 crore against Rs 4,548 crore during the previous quarter. The revenue came in 13.7% lower at Rs 1.1 lakh crore against Rs 1.28 lakh crore quarter on quarter.

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Reblog: Reliance Nippon Life IPO review


Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd. (RNL) (erstwhile known as Reliance Capital Asset Management Ltd.) is one of the largest asset management companies in India, managing total AUM of Rs. 3,625.50 billion as of June 30, 2017. RNL is involved in managing (i) mutual funds (including ETFs); (ii) managed accounts, including portfolio management services, alternative investment funds (“AIFs”) and pension funds; and (iii) offshore funds and advisory mandates. It is ranked the third largest asset management company, in terms of mutual fund quarterly average AUM (“QAAUM”) with a market share of 11.4%, as of June 30, 2017, according to ICRA. RNL started mutual fund operations in 1995 as the asset manager for Reliance Mutual Fund, managed QAAUM of Rs. 2,229.64 billion and 7.01 million investor folios, as of June 30, 2017. It managed 55 open-ended mutual fund schemes including 16 ETFs and 174 closed-ended schemes for Reliance Mutual Fund as of June 30, 2017. RNL has a pan-India network of 171 branches and approximately 58,000 distributors including banks, financial institutions, national distributors and independent financial advisors (“IFAs”), as of June 30, 2017.

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Reblog: How To Be A Grown Up Trader


I do not think traders start making money until they mature and understand the big picture. I have been on this journey myself and went through the wild excitement of the internet bubble, day trading and the experience of making a few hundred dollars in a few minutes the first time and the delusion of the get rich quit trading scheme and the expectations of doubling or tripling an account within a year. The game of trading has large amounts of money flowing through the markets that we want to capture for our accounts and can give rise to emotions that make us act immature through the delusion of ignorance, ego, and greed. We can easily become unrealistic and go down the wrong road, it is crucial for success that we stay on the right road.

1. Quit believing all the riches of people promising that you will be rich if you just sign up for their newsletter, seminar, or join their premium service. Look for realistic resources to learn from. The more hype the more the probability of a service being a scam.

2. Quit thinking you are going to double or triple your account in less than a year, even if you do that just means in almost all situations you are taking on too much risk. If you can achieve a 20%-25% annual return then you are among the best traders in the world, these are close to the annual returns of legends like George Soros, Warren Buffet, and Paul Tudor Jones.

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In first trading session of Samvat 2074, Sensex dives 194 points


Trading in Samvat 2074 got off to a rocky start, with the benchmark indices ending more than half a % lower and gauge for banking stocks dropping 1.25%. The BSE Sensex on Thursday fell 194.4 points, or 0.6% to close at 32,390, the Nifty 50 index fell 64.3, or 0.63% to close at 10,147.

The fall in the market was on account of a global sell-off which saw the Hong Kong market tumble the most this year and the European equities fall the most in two months. Market players said some domestic investors also resorted to profit-booking after a healthy 18% rally in the just-concluded Samvat 2073.

The BSE Bankex fell 1.3%, with ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HDFC Bank declining 2%, 1.6% and 1% respectively. These three stocks accounted for half of the fall in the benchmark Sensex.

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Reblog: 25 Powerful Trading Lessons From Jesse Livermore


jesse livermore

Born in 1877, Jesse Livermore is possibly the most famous trader in history.

He started trading at the age of 14 from bucket shops. His tape reading skill was so good that these bucket shops eventually didn’t want to do business with him.

At his peak in 1929, he was worth $100 million. Ultimately, he lost his entire fortune when he broke his trading rules.

The same trading rules which made him millions, caused him to lose everything when he lost control of himself.

Still, there are valuable lessons to be learned from Jesse Livermore’s trading experience.

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Reblog: Do NOT Look For a Trading Strategy That Suits Your Personality


What Feels Comfortable and Natural Usually Doesn’t Work

Why do almost all speculator lose money? They lose because successful speculation requires that we consistently do that which is psychologically uncomfortable and unnatural” – Richard Weissman

There is a persistent overall tendency for equity to flow from the many to the few. In the long run, the majority loses. The implication for the trader is that to win, you have to act like the minority. If you bring normal habits and tendencies to trading, you’ll gravitate toward the majority and inevitably lose” – William Eckhardt

Most of what we naturally do and think do not work in trading. Here are a couple of examples:

  • We are naturally inclined to cut our winners short and let our winners run

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Friday Closing bell: Sensex up 250 pts, Nifty ends at record closing high; telecom, banks lead


Equity benchmarks closed sharply higher for the second consecutive session as investors cheered macro data and hopes raised for an early resolution to telecom NPAs post telecom deals.

The 30-share BSE Sensex was up 250.47 points at 32,432.69 and the 50-share NSE Nifty rose 71.10 points to 10,167.50.

The market breadth was weak as about 1,431 shares declined against 1,293 advancing shares on the BSE.

Bharti Airtel was up 6 percent, Tata Teleservices up 9 percent and Tata Communications up 2 percent after Airtel decided to buy consumer telecom business of Tata Sons. Bharti Infratel was up 3 percent.

Markets also got a boost after data showed inflation held steady, instead of accelerating as expected, raising tentative hopes the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would be less hawkish about interest rates.

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Reblog: GIC IPO review


General Insurance Corporation of India Ltd. (GIC) is the largest reinsurance company in India in terms of gross premiums accepted in Fiscal 2017, and is accounted for approximately 60% of the premiums ceded by Indian insurers to reinsurers during Fiscal 2017, according to CRISIL Research. GIC is also an international reinsurer that underwrote business from 161 countries as at June 30, 2017. According to CRISIL Research. Corporation ranked as the 12th largest global reinsurer in 2016 and the 3rd largest Asian reinsurer in 2015, in terms of gross premiums accepted. It provides reinsurance across many key business lines including fire (property), marine, motor, engineering, agriculture, aviation/space, health, liability, credit and financial and life insurance. Through more than 44 years of experience in, and commitment to, providing reinsurance products and services, GIC believe that it has become a trusted brand to its insurance and reinsurance customers in India and overseas.

GIC has diversified its business geographically to grow underwriting business and profitability as well as to maintain a balanced portfolio of risks. Its gross premiums on a restated consolidated basis from international business in Fiscal 2017, Fiscal 2016 and Fiscal 2015 were Rs.10300.45 cr. Rs. 8339.69 cr. and Rs. 6609.45 cr. respectively, and gross premiums have grown at a CAGR of 24.84% from Fiscal 2015 to Fiscal 2017. In Fiscal 2017, Fiscal 2016 and Fiscal 2015, its gross premiums for risks outside of India were 30.53%, 45.00% and 43.28%, respectively, of its total gross premiums. GIC’s gross premiums on a consolidated restated basis from international business for the three months ended June 30, 2017 were Rs. 3004.97 cr. and its gross premiums for risks outside of India were 17.34% of total gross premiums. It has developed its overseas business through home office in Mumbai, branch offices in London, Dubai and Kuala Lumpur, a representative office in Moscow, a subsidiary in the United Kingdom that is a member of Lloyd’s of London and a subsidiary in South Africa.

In Fiscal 2017, GIC led 74.79% of the reinsurance treaties in which it participates in the Indian non-life market. It also administers three domestic reinsurance pools and one African-Asian reinsurance pool that allow it to manage reinsurance economics and strengthen relationships with customers. GIC maintains a diversified investment portfolio to generate investment returns to support liabilities for the reinsurance it underwrites and to create shareholder value. GIC has an Indian investment portfolio, which includes fixed income debt securities including Government securities, equity securities including exchange traded funds, and other investments, but does not include fixed term deposits for its business written outside of India at its branches. As at June 30, 2017 and March 31, 2017, GIC’s Indian investment assets on a standalone restated basis had a carrying value of Rs. 41929.85 cr. and Rs. 39126.27 cr. respectively, and a fair value of Rs. 73902.56 cr. and Rs. 69162.58 cr. respectively. Corporation’s investment income from its Indian investment assets on a restated standalone basis in Fiscal 2017, Fiscal 2016 and Fiscal 2015 was Rs. 4515.61 cr. , Rs. 4174.99 cr. and Rs. 4176.06 cr. respectively, and has grown at a CAGR of 3.99% from Fiscal 2015 to Fiscal 2017. Our yields (without unrealized gains) from Indian investment assets on a standalone restated basis in Fiscal 2017, Fiscal 2016 and Fiscal 2015 were 12.35%, 12.91% and 14.08%, respectively. In the three months ended June 30, 2017, its investment income and yields (without unrealized gains) from Indian investment assets on a restated standalone basis was Rs. 1046.79 cr. and 10.33%, respectively. In addition to its Indian investment assets, GIC holds fixed term deposits at banks outside of India for its overseas business (written outside of India at its branches) from which it earned Rs. 99.76 cr. in interest income in Fiscal 2017. GIC follows robust and comprehensive risk management framework.

Further, as at June 30, 2017 and March 31, 2017, 2016 and 2015, it had a restated consolidated net worth (including fair value change account) of Rs. 52116.00 cr. Rs. 49550.85 cr. Rs. 40870.26 cr. and Rs. 43384.29 cr. respectively. GIC’s total assets on a restated consolidated basis as at June 30, 2017 and March 31, 2017, 2016 and 2015 amounted to Rs. 108320.69 cr. Rs. 97079.44 cr. Rs. 76102.75 cr. and Rs. 74916.43 cr. respectively.

It had a solvency ratio of 1.83, 2.41, 3.80 and 3.32, calculated on a restated standalone basis as at June 30, 2017 and as at March 31, 2017, 2016 and 2015, respectively, against the minimum statutory requirement of 1.50. GIC has paid successive annual dividends in the past five fiscal years (including a proposed dividend in Fiscal 2017) to the Government of India as it’s shareholder, and corporation’s dividends during last five fiscal years were an aggregate of Rs. 3320.05 crore. Reinsurance premiums in India are projected by CRISIL Research to increase at a CAGR of 11-14% over the next five years to reach Rs. 70000 crore by Fiscal 2022. As a trusted brand in the Indian market with 44 years of experience, GIC believes that it is well placed to take advantage of this industry growth.

To meet its capital augmentation plan, working capital and listing purpose, GIC is coming out with a maiden IPO of 124700000 equity share of Rs. 5 each via book-building route with a price band of Rs. 855 – Rs. 912 per share to mobilize Rs. 10661.90 crore to Rs. 11372.60 crore (based on lower and upper price bands). Minimum application is to be made for 16 shares and in multiples thereon, thereafter. GIC is offering Rs. 45 per share cash discount to retail and eligible employees. The issue opens for subscription on 11.10.17 and will close on 13.10.17. The issue consists of fresh equity issue of 17200000 equity shares and an offer for sale of 107500000 equity shares of Rs. 5 each. The Offer includes an Employee Reservation Portion for Eligible Employees aggregating up to Rs. 116,800,000. Post allotment; shares will be listed on BSE and NSE. BRLMs to this issue are Citigroup Global Markets India Pvt. Ltd., Axis Capital Ltd., Deutsche Equities India Pvt. Ltd. HSBC Securities & Capital Markets (India) Pvt. Ltd., Kotak Mahindra Capital Co. Ltd. Karvy Computershare Pvt. Ltd. is the registrar to the issue.

Despite the mega issue, it is not going to have anchor bidding. Issue constitutes 14.22% of fully diluted post issue paid up capital of the corporation. Corporation has raised equity at par from 1972 to 1975 and has also issued bonus shares in the ratio of 1 for 1 in December 1982, 1 for 2 in January 1986, 2 for 3 in July 1990, 1 for 1 in February 1994 and 1 for 1 in June 2005. Post Issue Corporation’s current paid up equity capital of Rs. 430 crore will stand enhanced to Rs. 438.60 crore.

On consolidated basis, GIC has posted an average EPS of Rs. 34.81 and average RoNW of 16.61% for last three fiscals. The issue is priced at a P/BV of 3.89 and at a P/E of around 31.19. If we annualize latest earnings and attribute it on fully diluted equity post issue, then asking price is around P/E of 32. Thus the issue appears fully priced. It has no listed peer to compare with.

On BRLM’s front, 5 merchant bankers associated with the offer have handled 45 public offers in the past three years, out of which 12 offers closed below the offer price on listing date.

Conclusion: GIC IPO is the first mover in Re-insurance segment, hence going forward, it will create fancy, but considering the fate of recent insurance sector IPO’s performance post listing and the mega size of this fully priced offer with wider chances of allotment, immediate rewards are unlikely. Hence cash surplus investors may consider a moderate investment for long term.

The original review appears on chittorgarh.com and is penned by Dilip Davda. It is available here.