George Soros gained international notoriety when, in September of 1992, he risked $10 billion on a single currency speculation when he shorted the British pound. He turned out to be right, and in a single day the trade generated a profit of $1 billion – ultimately, it was reported that his profit on the transaction almost reached $2 billion. As a result, he is famously known as the “the man who broke the Bank of England.”
Soros went off on his own in 1973, founding the hedge fund company of Soros Fund Management, which eventually evolved into the well-known and respected Quantum Fund. For almost two decades, he ran this aggressive and successful hedge fund, reportedly racking up returns in excess of 30% per year and, on two occasions, posting annual returns of more than 100%.
“I’m only rich because I know when I’m wrong…I basically have survived by recognising my mistakes.”
Understanding that he was not always right enabled him to cut losses short and position size right.
Most traders have been in that one monster, parabolic trade where they made a killing. The problem is the exit. It is important to always be wary and plan a trailing stop to get out of your huge winners. So many investors and traders just get lucky, get in the right trade at the right time, and catch a monster trend. Their patience to hold pays off by catching a full move in their favour by letting their winner run. Unfortunately, this patience is a liability if they also hold all the way back down, coughing up big profits. One part of the exit is a well-placed trailing stop under a near term support price, or moving average. Additionally, you can use the psychology of the market as an indicator that it is time to look for a profitable exit.
10 Signs Your Big Winning Trade Is About To Go Bad and it is time to look for the exit.
If they put the ticker symbol, currency, commodity, or index that you are trading as a live permanent quote on CNBC, the end of the trend is near.
If a bull or bear is on the cover of a major national magazine, that market is very close to ending.
If you are on the side of the vast majority of traders, and people against you are vilified, then the trend is almost over. Continue Reading →
October 1987 was a devastating month for most investors as the world stock markets witnessed a collapse that rivaled 1929. That same month, the Tudor Futures Fund, managed by Paul Tudor Jones, registered an incredible 62 percent return. Jones has always been a maverick trader. His trading style is unique and his performance is uncorrelated with other money managers. Perhaps most important, he has done what many thought impossible: combine five consecutive, triple-digit return years with very low equity retracements. (I am fudging slightly; in 1986, Paul’s fund realized only a 99.2 percent gain!)
Jones has succeeded in every major venture he has tried. He started out in the business as a broker and in his second year grossed over $1 million in commissions. In fall 1980, Jones went to the New York Cotton Exchange as an independent floor trader. Again he was spectacularly successful, making millions during the next few years. His really impressive achievement though was not the magnitude of his winnings, but the consistency of his performance: During his three and a half years as a floor trader, he witnessed only one losing month.
It’s been 25 years since Paul Tudor Jones (PTJ) was featured in the original Market Wizards. He has since maintained his all-star track record. According to the New York Times, as of mid-2014, PTJ’s flagship fund averaged long-term annual returns of around 19.5%. And what’s even more impressive is that he didn’t have a single losing year over those 25 consecutive years — a feat unheard of in the hedge fund industry.
To follow is an examination of this legendary fund manager, whose trading style resembles that of a street fighter and whose gut-instinct for market turns are unparalleled.
AK has been an analyst at long/short equity investment firms, global macro funds, and corporate economics departments. He co-founded Macro Ops and is the host of Fallible.
AK speaks with Tyler of Macro Ops all about how important it is to avoid overtrading in the market. We also cover tactics you can use to prevent yourself from making this mistake. Make sure you watch the video above for the full conversation!
I’m sure every trader on their journey has experienced the novelty of Revengeful Trading. Firstly, what is Revengeful Trading?
As with anything in life, if something belongs to you and it’s taken away from you, you then develop a belief system that dictates that you are to seek and claim back what is rightfully yours. So if you are using your mobile phone, someone rushes up to you and snatches your phone from your hands, you have every right to challenge the thief and take back what is yours.
In Forex, many new traders experience a bad loss and they most likely say one of the following statements:
” That was my hard earned money, i want to make it back”
“i don’t deserve to experience this loss, what have i done wrong, I’m not a bad person?”
“That is not fair, my entry was fine, what did i do wrong to lose my money, ah man, my account is low, i have to trade to earn it back”
So, you’ve missed the great bull market. But that isn’t as irritating as that of seeing the neighbour – whose IQ is close to room temperature – drive up in his third new Jaguar in as many years. You consider yourself a ‘value’ investor at a time when such concept seems to be totally discredited. Year after year, you expected – convincingly – that the great bull would crumble. But it hasn’t. You purchased gold and lost. You sold Amazon.Com short. You lost. You’ve missed out on Microsoft, Dell, Qualcomm, Intel, Cisco, Yahoo and the assorted Internet wannabes. You expected an end to the mania but it has not come. O.K., you’ve simply earned the right to be frustrated. But now what?
If, on the other hand, you are the bold and lucky fellow who loaded up on Cisco five years ago, your knees must be a little shaky as you stand at the Temple of Unrealized Gains. ‘This bull will go on’ you reason, but then you doubt yourself. You don’t know. You aren’t sure. You hear little voices, conflicting opinions; you see the volatility, the excess, the mania, and the mother of all bubbles staring you in the face – not to speak of a hefty capital gains tax lurking out there. So, what will it be?
What are we, investors, to do?
Let’s talk about it. But first, let us examine the great investment paradox. The making of a fortune, whether small or large, in one’s chosen profession is certainly a significant achievement. To put it aside for a rainy day, the next generation, or as a source of future income and financial security is also prudent and wise. But to preserve and manage this wealth is an endeavor far more difficult than that of making it in the first place. And this is the paradox.
In 14 points to keep in mind when buying small-cap stocks, I threw light on what one must look at specifically and diligently.
While, I am not undermining the importance that must be given to facets such as industry growth, company growth, return ratios, profitability, cash flows and debt, I would like to present a broader perspective too.
Experienced investors will not only scrutinise all of the above, but also look at potential trigger or what could provide a supportive growth environment.
Let’s look at some of them.
1. Next-Gen
Keep a track of when the next generation takes over. More often than not, the next-gen are educated from Ivy league institutes, work for renown investment banks/consultancies globally for a few years before heading back to join the family business in India. This is not just a formal transfer of responsibility, but the birthing of a culture that realizes the importance of clean corporate governance and the upside it gives to valuations.
You can see it evident during the recent past in some companies such as a leading tyre manufacturer, glassware producer and an iconic automobile player.
2. Entrepreneurs
Keep an eye out for entrepreneurs who take over a listed shell company or a very small operating company or a loss-making company. They buyout the existing promoters, make mandatory open offers to the public and once in control of the company, they come up with a strategy to turn it around.
This has recently been noticeable; a Harvard graduate taking over a forestry related company, a pipe company promoter taking over such companies to diversify in related fields.
Finance academics define risk as volatility, whereas value investors see risk as the probability that adverse outcomes in the future will permanently impair the business’s potential cash flow and investor’s capital. Which is correct? It all depends on your investment horizon. But if maximising terminal wealth is of importance to investors, and it is difficult to argue otherwise, then value investors have it right.
Let me explain.
There are two types of fundamental analysts: short-term and long-term. Short-term fundamental analysts are the typical financial analysts. They accept the stock price as given and try to determine what will make the stock price move. Their price targets and investment calls are affected by the release of short-term economic or corporate news. They react to such announcements.
Value investors are long-term fundamental analysts. They do not react to short-term announcements. For example, the short-term noise of whether the next quarter’s earnings deviate from expectations is immaterial. What is material for value investors is whether the company continues to have strong fundamentals, be well managed and financially sound, as well as “cheap.” The stock price is not important; instead, it is the difference between the intrinsic value and the stock price that is important. If the stock price is significantly below the intrinsic value (by a predetermined margin of safety), then the stock is considered cheap, and value investors buy. Otherwise, they wait.
Having interviewed many of the greatest ever traders over many years in his Market Wizard series, many of whom expressed the important role personality plays in trading, Jack Schwager dedicated an entire chapter to the subject in his latest offering ‘The Little Book Of Market Wizards’, and even went so far as to say “if you get nothing else out of reading this book than the one following principle, it will still have been a very worthwhile endeavour: Successful traders find a methodology that fits their personality.”
To illustrate his point he contrasted the frenetic style of Paul Tudor Jones with that of the studious Gil Blake, but perhaps the simple yet profound contribution from Colm O’Shea was what stood out the most, as Schwager surmised here:-
“Traders must find a methodology that fits their own beliefs and talents. A sound methodology that is very successful for one trader can be a poor fit and a losing strategy for another trader. Colm O’Shea, one of the global macro managers I interviewed, lucidly expressed this concept in answer to the question of whether trading skill could be taught: ‘If I try to teach you what I do, you will fail because you are not me. If you hang around me, you will observe what I do, and you may pick up some good habits. But there are a lot of things you will want to do differently. A good friend of mine, who sat next to me for several years, is now managing lots of money at another hedge fund and doing very well. But he is not the same as me. What he learned was not to become me. He became something else. He became him.’”
If you have been day trading with price action and volume – two of our favourite tools – then the Money Flow Index (MFI) indicator would not feel alien to you. Once you move pass the fancy name, the money flow technical indicator essentially acts as a momentum oscillator that calculates the volume and price data in order to measure buying and selling pressure.
By calculating the indexed value based on the stock price and volume of the number of bars specified in the money flow index settings, it plots a line on the chart that oscillates between the 0 and 100 level.
Figure 1: Money Flow Index of CTRP Fluctuating Between the 0 and 100 Levels
When a stock’s price rises, the money flow index also rises and is a sign of increased buying pressure. Conversely, if the stock price drops, the Money Flow Index will also decline and is a sign of selling pressure. Therefore, you can easily predict the directional momentum in the market by keeping an eye on the money flow index.
Figure 1: Money Flow Index of CTRP Fluctuating Between the 0 and 100 Levels