Inverted cup and handle patterns can be identified by their large crescent shape followed by a less extreme, upward retracement. The entire pattern usually takes within 3 to 6 month to develop. These patterns are meant to serve as being indicative of a bearish reversal.
Below is a chart of the EUR|USD foreign currency pair showing an example of an inverted cup and handle pattern:
Amber Enterprises India Ltd. (AEIL) is a niche player in functional component manufacturing segment that is used widely by Room Air Conditioner (RAC) manufacturers. The company enjoys preference of eight out of 10 mega players in the field and is getting more new customers that are entering in this field as under While Goods penetration among users has vide difference as far as ACs are concerned. While TV, Fridge and Washing Machines enjoys penetration of over 10% to 60% in India, AC penetration is as low as around 4% and thus this segment has vide scope of advancement going forward.RAC penetration in neighboring countries ranges from 30 to 100%. Its customer includes Panasonic, LG, Daikin, Hitachi, Whirlpool, Voltas, Blue Star and Godrej. The company is a market leader in Indian RAC, OEM/ODM segments and has comprehensive product portfolio to suit the requirements of its customers. AEIL has 11 manufacturing facilities at 7 strategic locations and thus enjoys proximity of its prime customers. To stay tuned with the futuristic requirements, it keeps spending on R&D and backward integration. In last five years, it made two acquisitions i.e. PICL in 2012 and IL Jin in 2017 and is now able to offer maximum solutions under one roof. It enjoys “Make in India” status and helps India in reducing imports from China and other countries. While increasing temperature will bring more demand, adequacy of power supply help for the faster advancement of RAC markets domestically. As per Frost and Sullivan report, RAC and OEM/ODM markets are set to post CAGR of 12.4% and 25.1% respectively by 2022. AEIL enjoys a market share of 19.1% in RAC and 55.4% in OEM/ODM segments respectively. AEIL’s customers command around 75% of the Indian RAC market share.
IPO Snapshot:
Newgen Software Technologies is entering the primary market on Tuesday 16th Jan 2018, via a fresh issue-cum-offer for sale of equity shares of Rs. 10 each, in the price band of Rs.240 to Rs. 245 per share. The issue comprises a fresh issue of up to Rs. 95 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) of 1.35 crore equity shares by 4 PE investors. Representing 25.01% of the post issue paid-up share capital at the upper end, total issue size is Rs. 485 crore at the upper end, of which, 80% or Rs. 390 crore is the OFS portion. The issue will close on Thursday 18th Jan while the listing is expected on 29th Jan.
Company Overview:
Newgen Software Technologies is a software product company serving banking, Govt agencies, BPO / IT, insurance, healthcare verticals, through its basket of 3 product platforms – enterprise content management, business process management, customer communication management. While 40% revenue comes from India, approximately 27% comes from the US and Middle East each, and balance from Asia Pacific. Broadly, 27% of revenue is generated through sale of software product, 28% from implementation service, 22% from annuity based support service and 17% from AMC.
I will start this piece by saying that I am not bullish or bearish, I don’t make market calls, or predictions and I don’t have opinions about the markets that I trade. I just follow my process, which is based on risk management, money management, price and moving averages. I lead off with this statement so that readers do not think that I am making some type of a market call by talking about risk management and downside protection while we are at all-time highs. I follow core concepts:
Respect price, respect risk and always be prepared for any outcome.
With Global markets at or near all-time highs, and the money flowing in for many, now seemed to be an opportune time to remind ourselves that every day is a good day to focus on risk management. All of the greatest traders, Soros, Druckenmiller, Tudor Jones and Kovner, to name just a few, have a laser-like focus on capital preservation and risk management. They have all publicly stated that risk management and their ability to cut losses short is the cornerstone of their success. Paul Tudor Jones, a Billionaire Trader, is frequently the most quoted and has said:
“…at the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control. Ninety-percent of any great trader is going to be the risk control.”
“Don’t focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.”
“I am always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money.”
Bruce Kovner, another Billionaire Trader, said in Market Wizards: “First, I would say that risk management is the most important thing to be well understood”.
With that being said, here are 10 key concepts regarding risk management that I focus on:
Apollo Micro Systems is an electronic, electro-mechanical, engineering designs, manufacturing and supplies company.They design, develop and sell high-performance, mission and time critical solutions to Defence, Space and Home Land Security for Ministry of Defence, government controlled public sector undertakings and private sectors.
Company’s manufacturing facility is located in Hyderabad. They are an ISO 9001: 2015 certified company in relation to design, development and manufacturing of electronics and electro-mechanical systems including software.
The company develops customised solutions using common hardware and software technology IPs which can be re-configured to suit the end application and domain requirements of the end customer.
The company has participated in several Indigenous Missile programmes, underwater electronic warfare, underwater missiles, surface to air missiles, nuclear missile programmes, surface to surface missile programmes, indigenous submarine programmes UAV’s long and short endurance, ships, space programmes.
Amos Hostetter cofounded Commodities Corporation (otherwise known as CC) along with Helmut Weymar back in 1969. CC is the trading shop that produced more legendary trading talent than the Yankees have All-Stars. Alumni include Bruce Kovner, Michael Marcus, Paul Tudor Jones, Ed Seykota and more…
Hostetter was considered the wise sage and mentor of the group. He’s credited with imbuing many of these trading greats with the wisdom and knowledge they used to achieve their grand heights.
Upon his untimely death in a car accident in 1977, the directors of CC commissioned one of their traders, Morris Markovitz, to gather and record Hostetter’s timeless philosophy on markets and trading. The goal was to ensure future CC traders could benefit from his invaluable teachings. The resulting work was an internal booklet titled Amos Hostetter; A Successful Speculator’s Approach to Commodities Trading.
If I’ve learned anything in my decades of trading, I’ve learned that the simple methods work best. Those who need to rely upon complex stochastics, linear weighted moving averages, smoothing techniques, Fibonacci numbers etc., usually find that they have so many things rolling around in their heads that they cannot make a rational decision. One technique says buy; another says sell. Another says sit tight while another says add to the trade. It sounds like a cliche, but simple methods work best.
Having worked with highly skilled traders of financial markets at a variety of money management organizations, I’ve noticed one distinctive marker of success: the great traders leverage one or more great strengths in their personalities and in their information processing. Those strengths differ from one exemplary money manager to another, but in each case some distinctive strength is evident.
One portfolio manager, for example, is introverted and highly analytical. He works from an enclosed office that creates a quiet, distraction-free environment. His trading draws upon patterns in high frequency data not tracked by the vast majority of market participants. When those patterns appear, his software enters orders in the market, essentially eliminating any subjective elements from his decision-making. This automation frees him up to conduct new research for much of his day. By leveraging his analytical capacities and emotional self-control, he has created an approach to trading that has been successful for over a decade.
A second portfolio manager is quite different. He is quite extroverted and works on an open trading floor with a team of junior traders. He watches markets closely and continually communicates with market participants on the buy and sell sides. He is unusually skilled at distilling what others are thinking and feeling, particularly as markets are moving. He explains that his “edge” in trading is his ability to feel the fear and greed of others and exploit the biases in decision making that result from these emotions. For example, he detects unusual bearishness and risk-aversion among traders prior to a central bank meeting. When the meeting produces little surprise, he quickly takes the other side and accumulates a large position. By leveraging his social competencies, he also has crafted an approach to trading that has yielded long-term success.
The famous economist John Maynard Keynes once said, “Markets can remain irrational longer than one remains solvent”, guessing the levels of the markets could turn out to be a futile exercise and one that could cause damage.
However, what really matters is the balance of mind and behaviour particularly during times of exuberance in the markets where stocks tend to run ahead of fundamentals. While behavioural fallacies are common in all kinds of markets, here are a few that need a serious check in a bull market.
Every time just after I sell a stock it makes a new high. Let me buy it again
If one recollects, a short para written in Benjamin Graham’s investment classic “The Intelligent Investor”, it illustrated a famous story about physicist Sir Isaac Newton, who back in 1720 bought the shares of South Sea Company, considered as a hot stock at that time in England. When prices soared, he said that he could calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people. Soon Newton sold his stock pocketing 100 percent gain. However, feeling he sold early, as the prices further spiked, a month later he again purchased the stock and lost more money than he gained after his first purchase. The moral is that even the world’s greatest scientist could not understand the crowd and lost huge money.
