Reblog: Is passive investing suitable for India?


livemint

Since 2008, the global asset management industry has been reeling under a relentless tsunami. While the assets under management (AUM) of actively managed mutual funds (MFs) have increased from $9.0 trillion to $13.4 trillion, passively managed index funds have surged from $0.6 trillion to $2.2 trillion. These now account for 12% of the total MF industry. Vanguard, the international company most identified with passive investing, had less than $25 billion in AUM for over two decades since its inception in 1975. It crossed the $100-billion mark in 1995. The march of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has been equally impressive. By various accounts, the total AUM of ETFs has crossed the $2.1-trillion mark. ETFs have made significant inroads into the fixed income asset class, while index funds have been focused on equity.

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Reblog: At What NIFTY level will you start investing?


Nifty-level.png

Over the past few months I have received many requests for portfolio rebalancing. Since August, I have been of the view that this is not the best time to deploy fresh capital in the market.

screen-shot-2016-11-17-at-21-31-33

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Those already invested should try to rebalance their portfolios and so I have done in many client folios.

Common question: with NIFTY having fallen ~ 10% from its highs made earlier this year, is it time to start buying stocks? Here’s how valuations will look at different levels on the Nifty with current EPS base.

At what NIFTY level will you start investing?

  • 7000
  • 7500
  • 8000
  • 8500
  • 9000

To calculate current EPS, I will be taking current Nifty P/E (15 November, 2016) which is 21.00.

P/E =       Price (Nifty level)

Earnings per Share (EPS)

Current EPS =   379

[1] Nifty at 7,000 levels

P/E = 7,000/379

=18.47

[2] Nifty at 7,500 levels

P/E = 7,500/379

=19.79

[3] Nifty at 8,000 levels

P/E = 8,000/379

=21.11

 [4] Nifty at 8,500 levels

P/E = 8,500/379

=22.45

[5] Nifty at 9,000 levels

P/E = 9,000/379

=23.75

CURRENT NIFTY PE AS OF 15 NOVEMBER 2016 = 21.37

VIEW

Typically, in a bull market (which I believe we certainly are in right now); valuations tend to run ahead of the earnings. It would be difficult to buy these markets at valuations of sub 19 level anytime soon. Further, some of the buying and selling that happened over the past 2-3 days has no explanation.

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There sure is some amount of panic and herd selling. This could go on for some time as investors sell their liquid investments to arrange cash in the short term. Certainly with this new reality (of demonetization) one thing every investor should do is to pay some attention to his portfolio and rebalance it in light of the new realities.

As for buying stocks, sure . . . . . the tide could turn anytime from these levels.

The original post is written by Rajat Sharma of Mastermind, Sana Securities and is available here.


Reblog: 10-year history shows August is for the bears; can Nifty50 kiss 9K this time?


The original post appeared on the website of Economic Times and can be found here.

The Nifty50 rallied over 4 per cent in July and the trend may continue in August too. Technical charts and options data show a bullish picture as off now, which means if the market managed to sustain the momentum, Nifty may very well touch the 9,000 mark in August.

But here is the spoiler. Data for the past 10 years shows August has not been great for the bulls. On an average, the Nifty50 has given a negative return of nearly 1 percent in last 10 years. The index saw deep cuts of  over 5 percent in August in three out of last 10 years.
In 2011, the Nifty50 saw a vicious cut of 8.8 percent in August, followed by a deep cut of 6.6 per cent in 2015. In 2015, the Nifty50 plunged 5.8 per cent.

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Reblog – Intermediate Trend : uptrend still on


The post is reblogged from this link. It is authored by Mastermind, Deepak Mohoni

The market remains in an intermediate uptrend with the sensex, nifty and the Nifty Midcap 100 all in one. The uptrend began on June 24 when the sensex bottomed out at 25,911. As of now, the indices will have to go below their June 24 lows for a downtrend, but those levels will rise to the top of the minor decline that has set in. The levels are 27,900 for the sensex, 7,925 for the nifty, and 12,900 for the Midcap 100.

The US indices have now entered an intermediate uptrend. The FTSE-100, BOVESPA, Shanghai and our market were already in one. The other markets are still in intermediate downtrends.


Reblog: Nifty Golden Cross – Does it Work ?


The original post is written by Mastermind, Nooresh Merani and appears here.

We have seen a lot of articles on the Golden Cross on various media.

Let us quickly look at how the Nifty movements have been in the last 10-12 years post the Golden Cross.

Conclusion – It’s a very late indicator but may sometimes give real long-term trend changes. Tough to use it as a decision system. The whipsaws hurt real bad.  I would rather prefer looking at price patterns.

This is a quick video. Do put in your comments. Maybe next time would try to put it on Dow Jones / S&P 500


2016 Budget day is back for Indians


The Union Budget of India – a financial exercise in the largest democracy of the world! It is the day when the Finance Minister of India cracks the whip as he presents the Annual Financial Statement. The Indian hoi polloi are so used to increase (well sometimes decrease too) in taxes, duties etc. It is that day of the year that holds so much of hope and despair too. 11 am IST and the markets watch with bated breath as stocks either soar high or come hurtling down.

As we approach the budget day of 2016, the question on top of everyone’s mind then always is how will the stock market behave this year? At Stock Architect, we are always gleaning through information trying to bring you something interesting. We found this post which we are sure you will love to read and understand. May this Budget Day ring in prosperity for all investors.

How Stock market behaves during budget?

Panic in the stock market? Historical budget data says NO

Market is going to go down substantially!!

Government is going to give this time a very good budget !!

This budget is very very unique and a game changer !!!

Above three are most running rumors or humors that move around stock market, but they are present for all budgets. The following table indicates data of returns by Sensex in pre and post budget sessions for recent four budgets.

Pre-Post 2012 2013 2014 2015
1st day -1.55% 0.17% 1.25% 0.63%
2nd day -1.09% 0.69% 0.40% 0.48%
3rd day -0.16% 0.04% 1.27% -0.78%
4th day 2.09% -1.62% -0.07% -0.88%
5th day 0.48% -0.04% 0.54% 0.10%
6th day 1.28% 0.08% 0.53% 0.01%
7th day 0.59% -1.64% -1.98% -0.90%
8th day -1.36% 0.72% -0.54% 1.65%
Budget -1.19% -1.52% -0.28% 0.48%
10th day -1.10% 0.30% -1.37% 0.33%
11th day 0.25% -0.21% -0.07% 0.46%
12th day 1.65% 1.40% 0.89% -0.72%
13th day -2.30% 0.57% 1.27% 0.23%
14th day 0.96% 0.84% 0.04% -2.05%
15th day -1.78% 1.39% 0.31% -0.47%
16th day 1.20% -0.19% 0.29% -0.18%
17th day -0.79% -0.41% 1.21% 0.95%
Average 17 days -0.17% 0.03% 0.22% -0.04%
Change(1st day till 17th day) -3.28% -0.54% 4.17% -2.17%
Pre Budget – Market Performance

(Expectation )

(1st to 8th day)

Market was neutral Market was down Market was

up

Market was

Neutral

Post Budget-Market performance

(Reaction)

(9th to 17th day)

Market

went

down

Market went

up

Market

went

up

Market

went

down

Data for sensex pre budget 8 sessions and post budget 8 sessions as shown in the table provides following takeaways,

  1. Highest closing loss was 2.30% viz previous day closing in last four years data during budget period
  2. Highest closing Gain was 2.09% viz previous day closing in last four years data during budget period
  3. 1st day to 17th  day keeping the budget session in centre; Gain was maximum 4.17% during 2014 and loss was maximum -3.28% in year 2012
  4.  Market expectation and market reaction over 17 trading sessions as shown in table clearly show that market did factor in plus and minus viz pre and post but it was not huge number

What should be done in pre budget and post budget rally??

  • Data indicates it is better to be patient nothing big is going to happen in pre or post budget sessions, if you think long-term (it is important event but over long-term)
  • Data suggests stay away from intraday positions and sector specific calls as it is very difficult to time market especially during Budget days
  • In case of trading don’t get exposed to single sector, have diversified calls
  • Even after budget declaration, you can buy from the market. The market is not going to close immediately after.
  • Even if looking to invest in the hope that budget will be good, go and buy Nifty or Nifty ETF to play safe.

Although, there is a risk reward relationship, it is better to keep away from short-term greed for gains and if at all trade be initiated, it should be under the guidance of your expert, who can guide you for the long-term. As Trading / calls / investment decisions will be sole responsibility of readers, readers are advised to consult their expert before taking any action / decision.

The original article appears here – https://expertmile.com/arti.php?article_id=1016&title=How-Stock-market-behaves-during-budget#sthash.hbdGUH4d.dpuf