Reblog: George Soros‘ 10 Trading Principles


george-soros

George Soros gained international notoriety when, in September of 1992, he risked $10 billion on a single currency speculation when he shorted the British pound. He turned out to be right, and in a single day the trade generated a profit of $1 billion – ultimately, it was reported that his profit on the transaction almost reached $2 billion. As a result, he is famously known as the “the man who broke the Bank of England.”

Soros went off on his own in 1973, founding the hedge fund company of Soros Fund Management, which eventually evolved into the well-known and respected Quantum Fund. For almost two decades, he ran this aggressive and successful hedge fund, reportedly racking up returns in excess of 30% per year and, on two occasions, posting annual returns of more than 100%.

“I’m only rich because I know when I’m wrong…I basically have survived by recognising my mistakes.”

Understanding that he was not always right enabled him to cut losses short and position size right.

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Reblog: When Holding is the Hardest Part


“The easy money has been made” is one of my least favourite sayings about investing.

Making money in the markets is never easy. In fact, I would argue that it’s always hard.

Convincing yourself to buy during a bear market is hard. Convincing yourself to hold during a bull market is hard. Figuring out what to do during a sideways market is hard. Watching others make more money in the markets than you is hard. Following a plan when things aren’t going your way is hard. There’s always going to be a reason to do something that goes against your best interests.

Howard Marks wrote about this idea in a memo for Oaktree Capital a couple years ago:

Two of the main reasons people sell stocks is because they go up and because they go down. When they go up, people who hold them become afraid that if they don’t sell, they’ll give back their profit, kick themselves, and be second-guessed by their bosses and clients. And when they go down, they worry that they’ll fall further.

Where we are in each cycle usually determines what the hard part is at that moment. The hardest part for the past few years has been holding on during a rising market. Investors witnessed two epic market crashes in the span of eight years to kick off the start of the century. Those types of losses leave scars on an investor’s psyche.

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Reblog: 10 Things You Can Learn From The World’s Best Traders


Today’s lesson is a virtual treasure trove of wisdom and insight from some of the best trading minds of all time. We are going to go on a journey of discovery and learn a little about some of the best traders ever and dissect some of their famous quotes to see what we can learn and how it applies to our own trading.

The way to learn anything is to learn from the greats, have mentors, teachers, study and read; you must make a concerted effort to absorb as much knowledge from the best in your field as possible, for that is truly the fastest way to success, be it in trading or any other field.

Below, you will find a brief introduction to 10 of the best traders of all time, followed by an inspiring quote from them and how I view that quote and apply it to my own trading principles. Hopefully, after reading today’s lesson you will be able to apply this wisdom to your own trading and start improving your market performance as a result…

George Soros

George Soros gained international notoriety when, in September of 1992, he invested $10 billion on a single currency trade when he shorted the British pound. He turned out to be right, and in a single day the trade generated a profit of $1 billion – ultimately, it was reported that his profit on the transaction almost reached $2 billion. As a result, he is famously known as the “the man who broke the Bank of England.”

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Reblog: Successful Investing is Beautifully Boring


If you question how ‘boring’ can be beautiful, you have been following the wrong investment strategy.

Too many people have the misconception that investing is glamorous. The reality is that glamour is the last thing you will find in the stock market, most especially if you plan on being successful.

Hedge fund guru, George Soros sums it up brilliantly: “If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.”

Sure, we have all heard of a stock market success story or two. You probably have an acquaintance who made a decent return from investing in a tech stock that tripled in price before selling. Maybe even someone who inadvertently timed the 2008-09 crash correctly. In most cases, these successes are short-lived and can be attributed to pure luck. Although these ‘successful investing’ stories make for good dinner-party conversation, they are by far the exception among prosperous independent investors.

The fact is investors who produce the flashiest returns, time and time again, usually do so in the most unglamorous manner. A great example is Warren Buffett, who built an empire investing in so-called ‘boring’ stocks.

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Reblog: 39 Powerful Trading Tips by Ed Seykota That Will Rock Your Trading


ed seykota

Heard of Ed Seykota?

He was featured in the book Market Wizards and returned 250,000% over a 16 year period. Comparable to the likes of Warren Buffet and George Soros.

A little background:

Ed Seykota has an Electrical Engineering degree from MIT and is a systematic trend follower.

His trading is largely confined to the few minutes it takes to run his computer program, which generates signals for the next day.

If you want to get into the mind of one the best traders around, this is your chance.

Here are the 39 best things said by Ed Seykota.

Quotes by Ed Seykota

Technical analysis

1. In order of importance to me are: (1) the long-term trend, (2) the current chart pattern, and (3) picking a good spot to buy or sell. Those are the three primary components of my trading. Way down in very distant fourth place are my fundamental ideas and, quite likely, on balance, they have cost me money.

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Reblog: Bill Nygren: Value Investing Principles and Approach


Bill Nygren is a fund manager at Oakmark Funds. He is also Chief Investment Officer for U.S. Equities at Harris Associates. He’s particularly well-known for being a value investor who doesn’t fear the technology sector.

This post summarises key takeaways from his talk at Google in December 2017. While he reinforces many core value investing principles, he also challenges us to think differently.

The difference between gambling and investing

A value investor recognizes there are different ways she can put capital at risk and the difference between gambling (negative expected value) and investing in stocks (positive expected value)

Buying stocks like you would buy groceries

Bill observed the way his mother shopped for groceries by buying more of something that was on sale and deferring her purchase of something that wasn’t yet on sale

Smart money is not always smart

He spent two years as a research analyst at Northwestern Mutual Life where he pitched ideas of companies that he found were trading below their asset values. However, the portfolio managers chose not to buy such stocks until after they were recommended by 2-3 Wall Street analysts, by which time the price had moved to above asset values.

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Reblog: Why you shouldn’t try to trade like George Soros


George Soros, founder of Soros Fund Management LLC

 

Traders tend to be overconfident and discount what they don’t know about the market and individual securities. They see patterns instead of random noise. And they have a hard time admitting their losses and focus too much on gains.

In summarizing the science of behavioral finance, Statman says we’re pretty much hard-wired to consistently make these mistakes — and lose money. Since we tend to think of ourselves as better than average on most everything from driving to investing, it clouds our rational judgment. A body of research has found this to be particularly true when it comes to amateur stock traders.

Statman said that average returns of frequent traders “lag those of infrequent traders and the average returns of infrequent traders lag average returns of investors who abstain from trading.”

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Reblog: The 27 Most Important Finance Books Ever Written


“In my whole life, I have known no wise people (over a broad subject matter area) who didn’t read all the time — none,” Charlie Munger, the vice chairman at Berkshire Hathaway, once said.

With that in mind, we’ve highlighted 27 classic works that every Wall Streeter should read.

Many of these books show up time and again in lists of books recommended by the pros themselves.

Topics covered include everything from the most important principles of investing to inside stories of the worst financial crises in modern history.

1. “The Intelligent Investor” by Benjamin Graham

“The greatest investment advisor of the twentieth century, Benjamin Graham, taught and inspired people worldwide. Graham’s philosophy of “value investing” — which shields investors from substantial error and teaches them to develop long-term strategies — has made The Intelligent Investor the stock market bible ever since its original publication in 1949.”

2. “Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits” by Philip Fisher

“Widely respected and admired, Philip Fisher is among the most influential investors of all time. His investment philosophies, introduced almost forty years ago, are not only studied and applied by today’s financiers and investors, but are also regarded by many as gospel. This book is invaluable reading and has been since it was first published in 1958.”

3. “The Theory of Investment Value” by John Burr Williams

“This book was first printed in 1938, having been written as a Ph.D. thesis at Harvard in 1937. Our good friend, Peter Bernstein mentioned this book several times in his excellent Capital Ideas which was published in 1992. Why the book is interesting today is that it still is important and the most authoritative work on how to value financial assets. As Peter says: ‘Williams combined original theoretical concepts with enlightening and entertaining commentary based on his own experiences in the rough-and-tumble world of investment.’

“Williams’ discovery was to project an estimate that offers intrinsic value and it is called the ‘Dividend Discount Model’ which is still used today by professional investors on the institutional side of markets.”

4. “Irrational Exuberance” by Robert Shiller

“As Robert Shiller’s new 2009 preface to his prescient classic on behavioral economics and market volatility asserts, the irrational exuberance of the stock and housing markets “has been ended by an economic crisis of a magnitude not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

“As we all, ordinary Americans and professional investors alike, crawl from the wreckage of our heedless bubble economy, the shrewd insights and sober warnings, and hard facts that Shiller marshals in this book are more invaluable than ever.”

5. “One Up on Wall Street” by Peter Lynch

“America’s most successful money manager tells how average investors can beat the pros by using what they know. According to Lynch, investment opportunities are everywhere. From the supermarket to the workplace, we encounter products and services all day long. By paying attention to the best ones, we can find companies in which to invest before the professional analysts discover them. When investors get in early, they can find the ‘tenbaggers,’ the stocks that appreciate tenfold from the initial investment. A few tenbaggers will turn an average stock portfolio into a star performer.”

6. “Against the Gods” by Peter Bernstein

“In this unique exploration of the role of risk in our society, Peter Bernstein argues that the notion of bringing risk under control is one of the central ideas that distinguishes modern times from the distant past. Against the Gods chronicles the remarkable intellectual adventure that liberated humanity from oracles and soothsayers by means of the powerful tools of risk management that are available to us today.”

7. “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” by Edwin Lefevre

“First published in 1923, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is the most widely read, highly recommended investment book ever. Generations of readers have found that it has more to teach them about markets and people than years of experience. This is a timeless tale that will enrich your life—and your portfolio.”

8. “The Alchemy of Finance” by George Soros

“George Soros is unquestionably one of the most powerful and profitable investors in the world today. Dubbed by BusinessWeek as “the Man who Moves Markets,” Soros made a fortune competing with the British pound and remains active today in the global financial community.

“Now, in this special edition of the classic investment book, The Alchemy of Finance, Soros presents a theoretical and practical account of current financial trends and a new paradigm by which to understand the financial market today. This edition’s expanded and revised Introduction details Soros’s innovative investment practices along with his views of the world and world order.”

9. “Security Analysis” by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd

“First published in 1934, Security Analysis is one of the most influential financial books ever written. Selling more than one million copies through five editions, it has provided generations of investors with the timeless value investing philosophy and techniques of Benjamin Graham and David L. Dodd.

“As relevant today as when they first appeared nearly 75 years ago, the teachings of Benjamin Graham, “the father of value investing,” have withstood the test of time across a wide diversity of market conditions, countries, and asset classes.”

10. “The Handbook of Fixed Income Securities” by Frank J. Fabozzi

“For decades, The Handbook of Fixed Income Securities has been the most trusted resource in the world for fixed income investing. Since the publication of the last edition, however, the financial markets have experienced major upheavals, introducing dramatic new opportunities and risks.

“This completely revised and expanded eighth edition contains 31 new chapters that bring you up to date on the latest products, analytical tools, methodologies, and strategies for identifying and capitalizing on the potential of the fixed income securities market in order to enhance returns.”

11. “Damodaran on Valuation” by Aswath Damodaran

“In order to be a successful CEO, corporate strategist, or analyst, understanding the valuation process is a necessity. The second edition of Damodaran on Valuation stands out as the most reliable book for answering many of today’s critical valuation questions. Completely revised and updated, this edition is the ideal book on valuation for CEOs and corporate strategists. You’ll gain an understanding of the vitality of today’s valuation models and develop the acumen needed for the most complex and subtle valuation scenarios you will face.”

12. “Common Sense on Mutual Funds” by John Bogle

“Since the first edition of Common Sense on Mutual Funds was published in 1999, much has changed, and no one is more aware of this than mutual fund pioneer John Bogle. Now, in this completely updated Second Edition, Bogle returns to take another critical look at the mutual fund industry and help investors navigate their way through the staggering array of investment alternatives that are available to them.

“Written in a straightforward and accessible style, this reliable resource examines the fundamentals of mutual fund investing in today’s turbulent market environment and offers timeless advice in building an investment portfolio. Along the way, Bogle shows you how simplicity and common sense invariably trump costly complexity, and how a low cost, broadly diversified portfolio is virtually assured of outperforming the vast majority of Wall Street professionals over the long-term.”

13. “Thinking Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman

“In the international bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical.

“The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation―each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions.”

14. “A Random Walk Down Wall Street” by Burton Malkiel

“Especially in the wake of the financial meltdown, readers will hunger for Burton G. Malkiel’s reassuring, authoritative, gimmick-free, and perennially best-selling guide to investing. With 1.5 million copies sold, A Random Walk Down Wall Street has long been established as the first book to purchase when starting a portfolio. In addition to covering the full range of investment opportunities, the book features new material on the Great Recession and the global credit crisis as well as an increased focus on the long-term potential of emerging markets.

“With a new supplement that tackles the increasingly complex world of derivatives, along with the book’s classic life-cycle guide to investing, A Random Walk Down Wall Street remains the best investment guide money can buy.”

15. “The Essays of Warren Buffett” by Warren Buffett

“By arranging Buffett’s lengthy writings thematically, Cunningham’s classic book makes clear and coherent the principles and logic of Buffett’s philosophy of business, investing and life. When first published in 1997, many knew Buffett’s writings were gems, but this book’s novelty was to lay out exact principles and their relationship to each other.

“The central discovery is that the philosophy pivots around one core concept: the vast difference between price and value. From that core radiate the other themes that the book’s arrangement clarifies. The Essays of Warren Buffett is a unique book that takes the raw material of Buffett’s 700+ pages of letters and renders them into a finely-woven 270-page narrative, fulfilling Buffett’s hope that Cunningham would “popularize” his writings.”

16. “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” by Charles Mackay

“This classic survey of crowd psychology takes an illuminating, entertaining look at three historic swindles: “The Mississippi Scheme,” “The South-Sea Bubble,” and “Tulipomania.” Fired by greed and fed by naïveté, these stratagems gone awry offer essential reading for investors as well as students of history, psychology, and human nature.”

17. “Manias, Panics, And Crashes” by Charles P. Kindleberger

“This highly anticipated sixth edition has been revised to include an in-depth analysis of the first global crisis of the twenty-first century. Providing a scholarly and entertaining account of such topics as the history of crises, speculative manias and Lehman Brothers, this book has been hailed as ‘a true classic…both timely and timeless.'”

18. “Barbarians at the Gate” by Bryan Burrough and John Helyar

“A #1 New York Times bestseller and arguably the best business narrative ever written, Barbarians at the Gate is the classic account of the fall of RJR Nabisco. An enduring masterpiece of investigative journalism by Bryan Burrough and John Helyar, it includes a new afterword by the authors that brings this remarkable story of greed and double-dealings up to date twenty years after the famed deal.

“The Los Angeles Times calls Barbarians at the Gate, “Superlative.” The Chicago Tribune raves, “It’s hard to imagine a better story…and it’s hard to imagine a better account.”And in an era of spectacular business crashes and federal bailouts, it still stands as a valuable cautionary tale that must be heeded.”

19. “The Courage to Act: A Memoir of a Crisis and its Aftermath” by Ben Bernanke

“Working with two US presidents, and under fire from a fractious Congress and a public incensed by behavior on Wall Street, the Fed ― alongside colleagues in the Treasury Department ― successfully stabilized a teetering financial system. With creativity and decisiveness, they prevented an economic collapse of unimaginable scale and went on to craft the unorthodox programs that would help revive the U.S. economy and become the model for other countries.

“Rich with detail of the decision-making process in Washington and indelible portraits of the major players, The Courage to Act recounts and explains the worst financial crisis and economic slump in America since the Great Depression, providing an insider’s account of the policy response.”

20. “The Little Book of Behavioural Investing” by James Montier

“Bias, emotion, and overconfidence are just three of the many behavioral traits that can lead investors to lose money or achieve lower returns. Behavioral finance, which recognizes that there is a psychological element to all investor decision-making, can help you overcome this obstacle.

“In The Little Book of Behavioral Investing, expert James Montier takes you through some of the most important behavioral challenges faced by investors. Montier reveals the most common psychological barriers, clearly showing how emotion, overconfidence, and a multitude of other behavioral traits, can affect investment decision-making.”

21. “Too Big to Fail” by Andrew Ross Sorkin

“In one of the most gripping financial narratives in decades, Andrew Ross Sorkin — a New York Times columnist and one of the country’s most respected financial reporters — delivers the first definitive blow- by-blow account of the epochal economic crisis that brought the world to the brink.

“Through unprecedented access to the players involved, he re-creates all the drama and turmoil of these turbulent days, revealing never-before-disclosed details and recounting how, motivated as often by ego and greed as by fear and self-preservation, the most powerful men and women in finance and politics decided the fate of the world’s economy.”

22. “When Genius Failed” by Roger Lowenstein

“In this business classic — now with a new Afterword in which the author draws parallels to the recent financial crisis — Roger Lowenstein captures the gripping roller-coaster ride of Long-Term Capital Management. Drawing on confidential internal memos and interviews with dozens of key players, Lowenstein explains not just how the fund made and lost its money but also how the personalities of Long-Term’s partners, the arrogance of their mathematical certainties, and the culture of Wall Street itself contributed to both their rise and their fall.”

23. “Liar’s Poker” by Michael Lewis

“The time was the 1980s. The place was Wall Street. The game was called Liar’s Poker. Michael Lewis was fresh out of Princeton and the London School of Economics when he landed a job at Salomon Brothers, one of Wall Street’s premier investment firms. During the next three years, Lewis rose from callow trainee to bond salesman, raking in millions for the firm and cashing in on a modern-day gold rush. Liar’s Poker is the culmination of those heady, frenzied years—a behind-the-scenes look at a unique and turbulent time in American business.

“From the frat-boy camaraderie of the forty-first-floor trading room to the killer instinct that made ambitious young men gamble everything on a high-stakes game of bluffing and deception, here is Michael Lewis’s knowing and hilarious insider’s account of an unprecedented era of greed, gluttony, and outrageous fortune.”

24. “Stocks For The Long Run” by Jeremy Siegel

“Much has changed since the last edition of Stocks for the Long Run. The financial crisis, the deepest bear market since the Great Depression, and the continued growth of the emerging markets are just some of the contingencies directly affecting every portfolio in the world.

“To help you navigate markets and make the best investment decisions, Jeremy Siegel has updated his bestselling guide to stock market investing.

“This new edition of Stocks for the Long Run answers all the important questions of today: How did the crisis alter the fi nancial markets and the future of stock returns? What are the sources of long-term economic growth? How does the Fed really impact investing decisions? Should you hedge against currency instability?”

25. “Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.”

26. “Den of Thieves” by James B. Stewart

“A #1 bestseller from coast to coast, Den of Thieves tells the full story of the insider-trading scandal that nearly destroyed Wall Street, the men who pulled it off, and the chase that finally brought them to justice.

“Pulitzer Prize–winner James B. Stewart shows for the first time how four of the eighties’ biggest names on Wall Street—Michael Milken, Ivan Boesky, Martin Siegel, and Dennis Levine —created the greatest insider-trading ring in financial history and almost walked away with billions, until a team of downtrodden detectives triumphed over some of America’s most expensive lawyers to bring this powerful quartet to justice.”

27. “The Fix: How Bankers Lied, Cheated and Colluded to Rig the World’s Most Important Number” by Liam Vaughan and Gavin Finch

“In the midst of the financial crisis, Tom Hayes and his network of traders and brokers from Wall Street’s leading firms set to work engineering the biggest financial conspiracy ever seen. As the rest of the world burned, they came together on secret chat rooms and late night phone calls to hatch an audacious plan to rig Libor, the ‘world’s most important number’ and the basis for $350 trillion of securities from mortgages to loans to derivatives. Without the persistence of a rag-tag team of investigators from the U.S., they would have got away with it.”

This story originally appeared on time.com and is available here.


Reblog: Greatest Investors of All Time – How Did They Do It and What We Can Learn from Them


There are literally tens of millions of stock market and private investors today. The personal investing revolution has enabled anyone with a few hundred dollars to trade stocks. But we don’t have millions of great investors. Only a select few will ever be bestowed this title. So, how can you try to be one of them? You can emulate the people who were – or still are – the greatest. Below is our list of 8 of the greatest investors of all time; let us know in the comments below if you think we’ve missed out on any important names.

This list was compiled based on inputs from our members of Value Investing Clubs in UK, France, Belgium and Austria, and from our users at our FinTech company CityFALCON. Our focus at the Value Investing Clubs and CityFALCON remains on long-term fundamental investors who are looking to go through research to buy, hold and sell financial assets to generate strong higher than inflation returns.

Warren Buffett

We will just start off with the obvious case: Warren Buffett. Who doesn’t consider him one of the greatest, if not the greatest investor? Born just in time for the Depression (1930), Warren Buffett was born in Omaha, Nebraska, whence he eventually took his nickname “The Oracle of Omaha”.

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