Unable to Understand Market Trend as it moves from Sideways to Trending or
Is it your system or strategy? You are not having the Right Strategy and Losing
You — By repeating the same mistakes again and again
As per my experience with trading over 12+ years and also talking with 1000’s of traders over a period of time, my understating is
Traders are often their own worst enemies. The simple reason being most of the traders after doing a big loss will turn to charts and try to find their mistake. What I missed in catching this move, should I apply more indicators or should I learn something new to catch big moves etc. Readers can go back to thought process they went once they took a big loss or missed a major rally.
It’s easier to look at charts and imagine what the market might do or find an excuse , compared to turning inward and engaging in self-examination to determine if any changes in your approach to trading are required.
A very simple exercise will make you understand this
Go back to your past traders, highlight the trades where you made maximum losses, analyse all the loss making trades. You will observe over a period of time you have repeated the same mistake again and again. Be It taking an impulsive trade, trying to find top or bottom, not putting SL , taking over-sized position etc.
What would happen if you identified a recurring mistake? Would you do anything differently while trading, as a result? Would you need or use some type of structure or process to assist you in not repeating the same mistake?
The only thing we actually have any control over is our behaviour. The market will do what it will do. If one is truly interested in maximising / improving P&L, then focus on not to repeat your mistakes again. We may not be able to control our emotions, but we can learn to manage them. Trading Journal is one of the tools which can help you in understanding your mistakes and over a period of time not repeating them.
The market on Friday ended on a firm note with the Sensex up 100.45 points or 0.4 percent at 26625.91 and the Nifty was up 29.45 points or 0.4 percent at 8170.20. About 1240 shares advanced, 1333 shares declined, and 184 shares were unchanged. Bharti Airtel, TCS, Tata Motors, HDFC and Coal India were top gainers while Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy’s, Tata Steel, SBI and L&T are losers in the Sensex.
We have seen a lot of articles on the Golden Cross on various media.
Let us quickly look at how the Nifty movements have been in the last 10-12 years post the Golden Cross.
Conclusion – It’s a very late indicator but may sometimes give real long-term trend changes. Tough to use it as a decision system. The whipsaws hurt real bad. I would rather prefer looking at price patterns.
This is a quick video. Do put in your comments. Maybe next time would try to put it on Dow Jones / S&P 500
The selling pressure continued for second consecutive session on Friday, tracking weakness in global peers again and further profit booking in banks, auto, FMCG and metals stocks. The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 127.71 points to 26635.75 and the 50-share NSE Nifty slipped 33.55 points to 8170.05. The broader markets also caught in bears’ grip with the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices falling 0.2-0.4 percent. Experts feel the consolidation may continue in near term and says any sharp fall will be buying opportunity as they are bullish on India.
Next week will be very important globally as Federal Reserve will be holding a two day meeting that will start on June 14. After the recent speech by Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen, experts believe that there won’t be a rate hike in June policy but the commentary will be key to watch out for.
This is a blog post by Mastermind, Nooresh. The original post appears here.
One can understand the obsession for Day Trading by just doing a Search on Google for the Words like – Day Trading, Intraday Trading Tips, Day Trading Tips and the number of sites that pop up catering to it.
BSE, an exchange in India, mentions itself to be the fastest exchange in the world.
Nifty 50 index is world’s most actively traded derivatives contract: Survey – Link
Majority of brokers have 90 – 96% of their business coming from Derivatives
There are a bunch of Discount Brokers with Rs. 0-20 as broking change.
The market hit fresh 7-month high intraday Friday with the Sensex reclaiming 27000 and Nifty 8250 levels. However, profit booking in the last couple of hours of trade dragged the benchmarks as well as broader markets to end flat despite positive global cues.
The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 0.11 points to 26843.03 while the 50-share NSE Nifty rose 1.85 points to 8220.80. The market breadth was also weak as about 1521 shares declined against 1092 advancing shares on Bombay Stock Exchange. The market volatility may continue for some more time after hitting multi-month highs, as investors are eagerly waiting for key events – RBI policy meeting on June 7, Fed meeting on June 14-15 and the referendum in Britain.
The original post is by Mastermind, Sana Securities, authored by Rajat Sharma and appears here.
I wasn’t really sure of the title to this post but the idea stemmed out of a question that I received from a subscriber.
Instead of repeating the exact question, I will break it up into 2:
Can you earn fixed interest income on the spare cash lying in your trading account?
Should you transfer spare cash into your bank account where you can earn up to 4% – 6% interest (savings account rate for Yes Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank) or can you earn higher?
Cash Position: The best cash position is naturally the one that earns the highest possible ‘fixed income rate’ in the market. Fixed interest income can be earned on – money lying in savings/ current account, money market and liquid funds, ultra-short and short term funds and medium and long term funds.
As a trader or as a short term investor, you will require the money that you keep in your trading account at a short notice. For this reason, many short term investors believe that the best thing to do is to transfer funds from trading account to your savings bank account, perhaps at the end of the trading day (i.e. at 3.30 pm) and allocate them back to your trading account terminal when needed. It’s all in real time with internet banking these days. This is not the best thing to do.
How much are you going to earn by doing this?
Savings bank interest: In the most aggressive (bank) scenario you will earn ~ 0.06% on a weekly basis (i.e. ~ half of 6% divided by 52 weeks; considering that you transfer it exactly at 3.30 pm each day for until when the market opens on the next day).
Now consider a Liquid fund on the Mutual Fund Segment within your trading terminal.
Liquid and money market fund interest: Typically, these funds earn between 7.8% – 7.9% annual interest but that’s not all. You can actually stay invested in these funds unless you need to settle a trade (see example below). Here you will earn ~ 0.15% on a weekly basis (i.e. 5.8% divided by 52 weeks; see example below).
Example: You have Rs. 2,00,000 lying unutilised in your trading account and do not want to buy anything or make any position. You can either transfer this money to your bank account or buy a money market or liquid fund which typically earns 7.8 % return with very little volatility.
If you have stocks lying in your demat account, you will typically get 4 times their market price as margin to trade / invest (i.e. if you have stocks with current market value of Rs. 2,50,000 in your demat account, you will be allowed to buy/sell for up to Rs. 10,00,000/-). No interest will be charged on such buying and selling for up to 3 days**. Even on the 3 rd day, all you have to do is sell your liquid fund and your account is settled immediately. So practically, you may never have to sell your cash position. All you have to do is to define how much of your capital would you want to keep in cash at any point, based on market factors.
** These margins and limits may vary. The above is based on the limits we provide to all our clients.
Now consider this:
If you choose an ultra-short to short term fund where interest rates are 8.9% – 9.6%, and can stay invested for up to 15 days, then you earn ~0.18 % on a weekly basis (provided that instead of 2-3 days, as above, you can plan your buying and selling for up to 15 days).
Depending on market factors you do get opportunities to invest in even higher interest bearing instruments. For now, if you are still worried about losing out on basic interest income in trading account and are constantly transferring money back and forth between your accounts, STOP. There are easier solutions in life and better things to do after 3.30 pm.
The market ended with super gains boosted by index heavyweights. The Sensex closed up 286.92 points or 1 percent at 26653.60, and the Nifty was up 79.90 points or 0.9 percent at 8149.55. About 1401 shares have advanced, 1173 shares declined, and 189 shares are unchanged.
SBI gained 9 percent while Sun Pharma was up 6 percent. Adani Ports, Reliance and Bajaj Auto were other gainers in the Sensex. Among losers were ONGC, Axis Bank, ITC, GAIL and NTPC.Here are some picks from the week gone by.
I find it ironic that more research is being done today than at any point in time in the past, yet a lot of value investors are failing to beat the market.
Ironically, the mountain of articles on popular investing websites just aren’t helping. Part of the problem might be due to the “more brains” problem Graham cited years ago. Since everybody on Dalal Street is so smart, all those brains ultimately cancel each other out.
This glut of brain power, investment research, and investors clamouring for bargains does not mean that you can’t beat the market. But, knowing how to pick value stocks is a key requirement, along with having a good strategy and being prepared to do things that most other investors aren’t.