Reblog: On outperformance


Some excerpts from my annual review to subscribers. Hope you will find it useful

Sources of outperformance

Superior performance versus the indices can usually be broken down into three buckets

  1. Informational edge – An investor can outperform the market by having access to superior information such ground level data, ongoing inputs from management etc.
  2. Analytical edge – This edge comes from having the same information, but analyzing it in a superior fashion via multiple mental models
  3. Behavioral edge – This edge comes from being rational and long term oriented.

I personally think our edge can come mainly from the behavioral and analytical factors. The Indian markets had some level of informational edge, but this edge is slowly reducing with wider availability of information and increasing levels of transparency.

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Sensex settles 267 points lower, Nifty below 9,300 on Friday as banking stocks dip



The benchmark indices settled lower on Friday as banking stocks dipped after the government notified the Banking Regulation (Amendment) Ordinance, 2017, while a drop in crude prices dragged down oil explorers such as ONGC and Oil India.

The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 29,858, down 267 points, while the broader Nifty50 closed at 9,285, down 75 points. The Nifty50 index reversed course seconds after hitting its fresh all-time high of 9,367 in early trade.

India VIX, essentially a fear gauge, closed the day at 11.98, rising over 5% from the previous close.

In the broader market, the S&P BSE Midcap and S&P BSE Smallcap indices settled 1% and 0.8% lower, respectively.

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Reblog: HUDCO IPO review


Housing & Urban Development Corp Ltd, popularly known as “HUDCO” that recently celebrated its 47th anniversary on 25th April 2017 and enjoying “Mini Ratna” status among PSUs is breaking the ice after a gap of 5 years (since April 2012) with a maiden IPO from a PSU. This wholly owned GoI Company is engaged in urban and rural housing as well as infrastructure project financing and has a track record of profit generation and dividend distribution since inception. It enjoys AAA rating for its debt plans from rating agencies like CARE, ICRA and IND Ra to have low cost debts.. Its housing finance loan is classified as social housing, residential real estate and retail finance (branded as Hudco Niwas). Under social housing Hudco is financing economically weaker sections/ lower income groups of the society.

For urban infrastructure finance, Hudco distributes loans relating to water supply, roads and transport (including railways and ports), power, SEZs, gas pipelines, oil terminals, telecom network, market complex, shopping centres, hotels, office buildings, sewerage, drainage, solid waste management etc.

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Markets settle lower on profit-booking on Friday, but gains most in six weeks



The benchmark indices on Friday settled lower as investors booked profits in index heavyweights such as ITC and HDFC ahead of a long weekend, but posted their biggest weekly gain in six weeks.

The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 29,918 down 111 points, while the broader Nifty50 closed at 9,304, down 38 points.

In the broader market, the S&P BSE Midcap and S&P BSE Smallcap indices outperformed to gain 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, turned negative from positive. On BSE, 1,479 shares fell and 1,386 shares rose. A total of 136 shares were unchanged.

Nifty Realty index (down 1.7%) was the leading sectoral loser, led by losses in Prestige (down 4%) and Delta Corp (down 4%) and Indiabulls Real Estate (down 3%).

The Nifty Bank pared entire intraday losses to settle 0.1% higher.

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Reblog: 5 ways to Make money in Futures & Options


Derivatives or Futures and Options are leveraged instruments to trade in the stock market. There are broadly 3 groups of people who use derivatives-

  1. Short term traders for making quick buck– most of them want to make a quick buck. Leveraged trading means, you can potentially make 100% returns from a 10% movement in the stock. 100% returns from a 10% move looks lucrative! The only issue is you can lose bigger amount if stock moves in opposite direction
  2. Long term stock investors for hedging portfolio- these category of people may use derivatives for long term hedging of their portfolio or making some extra return on their stock holdings. They mainly use options. And, the idea is to hedge the portfolio, and not make great returns from short term trading
  3. Long term investors who buy special long term options with a long term view- These include big investors including Warren Buffett and many others buying warrants, convertible debentures, long term calls etc.

Majority of people who trade in derivatives come in the first category. More than 95% of traders lose money. Mostly these are young people who get job in corporate companies, open a new demat account and want to make some quick money. They are replaced by new traders (as new graduates complete college and get job). The cycle repeats.

Here is an interview of Nithin Kamath where he mentions –

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Reblog: Beyond Buffett: How To Build Wealth Copying 9 Other Value Stock Pickers


Santa knocks on all our doors not once, but four times a year. During his off-season, he reliably shows up bearing profitable gifts on February 14th, May 15th, August 14th and November 14th. These are the deadlines for 13-F filings with the SEC.

The “13-F” is a quarterly disclosure required of all individuals and entities who have $100 million or more invested in US equity markets. The 13-F is due within 45 days of quarter-end and lists the updated stock positions of the managers. These filings are publicly available at no charge to anyone. Websites like Dataroma make it a breeze to track the picks of various value investors. There is such a thing as a free lunch.

Non-believers will complain that buying these picks after a multi-month delay simply can’t work because markets are too efficient. Well… not so fast. A 2008 study by Professors Gerald Martin and John Puthenpurackal entitled, Imitation is the Sincerest Form of Flattery, cloned Berkshire Hathaway’s equity portfolio between 1976 and 2006 by investing in the positions with a substantial delay. Their cloned portfolio always bought (or sold) on the last trading day of the month that it was publicly disclosed that Buffett had bought a new stock or lightened up on an existing one.

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Markets pare some losses on Friday to end marginally lower; Nifty down 0.3% for week


Extending losses for second consecutive week, benchmark indices settled marginally lower in a volatile session as investors stayed cautious in the earnings season. Nifty50 slipped below 9,100, dragged by index heavyweights like Sun Pharma and ITC. However, RIL and HDFC Bank supported the market.

The S&P BSE Sensex settled the day at 29,365, down 57 points, while the broader Nifty50 ended at 9,119, down 17 points.

In the broader market, the S&P BSE Midcap index and the S&P BSE Smallcap index added 0.02% and 0.2%

Small and midcap stocks hit record highs, with the Nifty Smallcap 100 index climbing as much as 1.1% and the Nifty Midcap 100 index up as much as 0.6%.

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Reblog: Why Our Emotions Ruin Investing Decisions


Listen to this article

Markets are at the whim of shocks and surprises. No doubt that last year’s surprising Brexit referendum result and Trump’s impressive presidential election win remind us of that. When it comes to taking risks, humans are not (necessarily) equipped to deal with the rollercoaster world of risks and investing in a level-headed way.

Humans Can Be Their Own Worst Enemies

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Reblog: 39 Book Recommendations From Billionaire Charlie Munger that Will Make you Smarter


 

That quote kickstarted my own reading habits and helps me regularly read over 100 books a year.

Charlie Munger is the billionaire business partner of Warren Buffett and the Vice Chairman at Berkshire Hathaway, one of the largest companies in the world. He’s also one of the smartest people on the planet — his lecture on the psychology of human misjudgment is the best 45 minutes you might spend this year.

Over the years Munger’s compiled a list of book recommendations that has served me well. A lot of these books will help you become more valuable by seeing the world for what it really is and gaining unique ideas and insights.

1. Faraday, Maxwell, and the Electromagnetic Field: How Two Men Revolutionized Physics

It’s a combination of scientific biography and explanation of the physics, particularly relating to electricity. It’s just the best book of its kind I have ever read, and I just hugely enjoyed it. Couldn’t put it down. It was a fabulous human achievement. And neither of the writers is a physicist.

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Markets settle holiday-truncated week lower, Nifty ends at 9,150


The benchmark indices on Thursday settled the holiday-truncated week lower after index heavyweight Infosys’ revenue guidance and plan to distribute cash to shareholders fell short of expectations, raising concerns at the start of the March quarter earnings.

The geopolitical worries, after the United States launched cruise missiles against an air base in Syria last week and fears of a new weapons test by North Korea, also contributed to the losses.

Investors also took cues from the index of industrial production (IIP) data, which contracted in February and consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation data, which edged up in March.

The S&P BSE Sensex settled at 29,461, down 182 points, while the broader Nifty50 ended at 9,150, down 53 points. For the week, the Sensex shed 245 points or 0.8%, while the Nifty slipped 47 points or 0.5%.